Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa between 2023 and 2043. The scenario forecasts that a strategic push toward industrialization will drive structural economic transformation, increase GDP, generate millions of jobs, and reduce extreme poverty and income inequality across the continent.

The report 'India's Clean Cooking Shift' by the International Institute for Sustainable Development argues for a diversification of India's clean cooking energy sources to reduce reliance on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and piped natural gas (PNG). It proposes a 'twin-track' strategy: scaling electric cooking (e-cooking) in urban and peri-urban areas and biogas in suitable rural areas to address issues of affordability, import volatility, and service gaps.

This special report provides a scenario analysis (V, U, and L scenarios) of the impact of COVID-19 on Africa through 2030, focusing on economic indicators, extreme poverty, and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets.

This document is the 'Purpose and Scope' section of a special report titled 'Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040'. It outlines the use of the International Futures modelling platform to analyze Algeria's current development state and project its trajectory to 2040, contrasting a 'Current Path' forecast with a positive 'Algerian Dream' scenario characterized by democratic governance and prosperity.

This report section outlines three alternative development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to contrast with a 'Current Path' forecast. It identifies five foundational reforms across governance, education, and subsidies that are essential for progress regardless of the chosen pathway.

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute evaluates the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of deep renovation and energy supply decarbonisation for the residential building stock in Estonia by 2050.

This research paper assesses global digital transformation trends and integrates them into the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework to analyze impacts on energy, emissions, and climate targets.

The 'AFRICA 2043' report by the Institute for Security Studies uses the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform to analyze Africa's development trajectory to 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) forecast against eight sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms, aiming to align with the African Union's Agenda 2063.

This briefing note by the Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs (TESS) examines the 'twin transition'—the simultaneous pursuit of digital and green transformations. It analyzes how digital technologies can both enable climate action and contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, focusing on the implications for developing countries and the pathways toward a net-zero digital economy by 2050.

This report by the NewClimate Institute examines economic and societal trends affecting the material foundations of prosperity in Germany and their associated risks and opportunities for climate protection, utilizing mini-scenarios extending to 2040 to identify necessary actions for policymakers and experts.

This briefing note by the Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs (TESS) examines the intersection of agricultural trade, climate change, and net-zero pathways, focusing on the implications for developing countries. It analyzes how climate change disrupts production and trade flows, the sector's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, and the potential for international trade cooperation to foster climate-resilient food systems.

This briefing note by the Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs (TESS) and E3G examines the intersection of global trade, climate policy, and the energy transition. It analyzes how the shift away from fossil fuels reshapes geopolitical power and trade flows, highlighting the disproportionate risks and opportunities for developing countries. The document advocates for proactive trade policy reforms, increased financial support, and international coordination to ensure an equitable transition that avoids protectionism and supports climate-resilient development in the Global South.

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the trajectories of geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation through 2050, specifically analyzing how these trends affect global trade, supply chains, and food security.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers, commissioned by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (wrr), examines the potential for Africa to achieve a demographic dividend. It analyzes the stages of demographic transition, the role of urbanization, and the specific conditions—such as health, education, and governance—required to convert a youthful population structure into economic growth. The paper models an ambitious 'Demographics and Health' scenario to demonstrate how accelerated improvements in fertility and mortality could enhance Africa's development trajectory and its relationship with Europe.

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute uses scenario analysis and data from LeadIT’s Green Steel Tracker to estimate the renewable electricity and renewable hydrogen requirements for the European Union's green steel transition, focusing on iron reduction and primary steel production.

This policy brief by Transforma analyzes the electricity supply-demand balance in Colombia through 2038, specifically evaluating the impact of phasing out coal-fired thermal power plants. While the system currently has sufficient capacity, the report identifies potential deficits in 'firm energy' (reliable capacity during low hydrology) depending on the speed and sequence of the coal phase-out, emphasizing the need for accelerated renewable energy deployment and grid improvements.

A case study by the NewClimate Institute, commissioned by Greenpeace e.V. and Germanwatch e.V., analyzing the impact of delayed climate action in Germany's transport sector on future generations and the feasibility of achieving climate neutrality by 2045 or 2050.

This research paper by Energy Innovation evaluates the potential impacts of two divergent U.S. policy pathways on greenhouse gas emissions, the economy, and public health through 2050. It compares a 'Continued Climate Leadership' scenario, aimed at meeting the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), against a 'Project 2025' scenario, which involves repealing major climate laws and expanding fossil fuel production. The analysis finds that the Continued Climate Leadership pathway would significantly reduce emissions, create millions of jobs, and lower household energy costs, while the Project 2025 pathway would increase emissions, lead to substantial job losses, and raise energy costs for households.

This report introduces the Industrial Zero Emissions Calculator (IZEC), an open-source Excel tool designed to help stakeholders model and visualize the resource requirements—including electricity, hydrogen, bioenergy, and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—needed to fully decarbonize the industrial sector across five global regions.

This methodological note describes a Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment conducted by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) for a proposed mass rapid transit (MRT) system in Pampanga, Philippines. The document outlines the SAVi framework, which integrates system dynamics, multi-criteria analysis, and project finance modelling to evaluate the economic, social, and environmental impacts of the project compared to a 'no action' scenario.