The Impact of the Education Scenario

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of an 'Education scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The document argues that increased investment in education acts as a multiplier for economic growth, reducing extreme poverty and improving health outcomes across the continent.

• The Education scenario projects a significant increase in education spending in Africa, rising from US$143.7 billion (4.5% of GDP) in 2019 to US$490.5 billion (5.6% of GDP) by 2043. This represents an additional US$67.9 billion (0.56% of GDP) in 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast. The cumulative additional investment from 2024 to 2043 is estimated at US$461 billion, which is projected to generate a cumulative addition to the African economy of US$1,872 billion.
• By 2043, the Education scenario is expected to make the African economy US$368.4 billion (4.3%) larger than the Current Path forecast, with a GDP growth rate difference of 0.5 percentage points. Average GDP per capita (PPP) is projected to rise to US$7,302 by 2043 from US$5,194 in 2019, providing an additional gain of approximately US$240 per person over the Current Path. These gains vary by income level: US$149 for low-income Africa, US$283 for lower-middle-income Africa, US$458 for upper-middle-income countries, and US$600 for the Seychelles.
• The Education scenario is projected to reduce extreme poverty (defined as US$1.90 per person per day) by more than two percentage points across Africa, resulting in 47 million fewer extremely poor people by 2043 compared to the Current Path. The greatest benefits are seen in low-income countries (24.4 million fewer extremely poor) and lower-middle-income countries (22 million fewer extremely poor).
• Improvements in education are linked to better health and demographic outcomes by 2043. The scenario projects a reduction in infant mortality by an average of 1.8 deaths per 1,000 live births (and five fewer deaths in lower-middle-income countries), a reduction in total fertility by 0.121 births per woman, and an increase in life expectancy by approximately five months. Consequently, the African population would be 12 million people smaller than the Current Path forecast.
• Regional progress in mean years of education for adults aged 20–29 varies. Central Africa shows the highest improvement at 56.4% (from 5.9 to 9.2 years) between 2019 and 2043, though it remains the worst-performing region. East Africa sees a 49% increase, while North Africa sees the smallest increase at about 20%, though it remains the best-performing region and is one of the few to surpass the 2019 world mean by 2043.

APA

Aikins, E. R., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Impact of the Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Impact of the Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Impact of the Education Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026impact, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Impact of the Education Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }