The Impact of the Education Scenario

The document analyzes the potential benefits of increased education spending in Africa by 2043. It finds that an 'Education scenario' would significantly boost GDP, reduce extreme poverty, and improve health outcomes, particularly in lower-income regions, while creating a 'human capital dividend' that accelerates economic growth.

• The Education scenario projects a significant increase in education spending in Africa, rising from US$143.7 billion (4.5% of GDP) in 2019 to US$490.5 billion (5.6% of GDP) by 2043. This investment is expected to yield a high return, making the African economy US$368.4 billion (or 4.3%) larger in 2043 than the Current Path forecast.
• Mean years of education for adults aged 20–29 are projected to improve across five regions by 2043. Central Africa is expected to see the highest percentage increase at 56.4% (rising from 5.9 to 9.2 years), while North Africa remains the best-performing region despite the lowest improvement rate of approximately 20%.
• The Education scenario is projected to reduce extreme poverty (defined as US$1.90 per person per day) by over two percentage points across Africa, representing 47 million fewer extremely poor people by 2043 compared to the Current Path. Low- and lower-middle-income countries are expected to benefit most, with reductions of 24.4 million and 22 million people, respectively.
• Improved education is linked to positive health and demographic outcomes by 2043, including a reduction in infant mortality by an average of 1.8 deaths per 1,000 live births, a decrease in total fertility by 0.121 births per woman, and an increase in life expectancy by approximately five months. These factors would result in a population 12 million people smaller than the Current Path forecast.
• The economic gains from the Education scenario vary by country income level and specific nation. By 2043, average GDP per capita (PPP) increases are projected at US$149 for low-income Africa, US$283 for lower-middle-income Africa, US$458 for upper-middle-income countries, and US$600 for the Seychelles. Libya and Equatorial Guinea are projected to gain the most (US$1,632 and US$1,190 respectively), while Burundi, Central African Republic, and Sierra Leone gain the least.

APA

Aikins, E. R., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Impact of the Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Impact of the Education Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Impact of the Education Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026impact, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Impact of the Education Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=06-education&topic=10-impact-of-the-education-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }