CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Cape Verde, forecasting the economic and environmental impacts of integrating 11 sectoral development scenarios by 2043. The analysis compares this integrated path against a 'Current Path' forecast, highlighting significant potential gains in GDP per capita and poverty reduction, alongside an increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase Cape Verde's GDP per capita to US$15,663 by 2043. This represents an increase of US$4,824 over the Current Path forecast. Among the sectoral components, the Free Trade and Manufacturing/Transfers scenarios are identified as having the greatest potential to improve economic growth, while Health/WaSH and Governance have the least impact.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, extreme poverty is expected to decline significantly. By 2043, only 24,000 people (3.6% of the population) are projected to live below the poverty line of US$3.20, meaning 54,000 more people would be moved out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path forecast.
• The total size of the economy (GDP MER) in 2043 is estimated to be US$8.7 billion under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which is US$3.5 billion larger than the Current Path estimate of US$5.2 billion. The service sector is projected to be the largest contributor to this growth, adding 4.2 percentage points to GDP (equivalent to US$2.8 billion) by 2043.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is associated with higher environmental costs. Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 0.18 million tons in 2019 to 0.47 million tons by 2043, which is higher than the 0.38 million tons estimated in the Current Path forecast. The document suggests that an accelerated energy transition is necessary to mitigate this impact.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026cabo, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }