CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for Cape Verde projects significant economic growth, with GDP per capita reaching US$15,663 by 2043 and a substantial reduction in extreme poverty. While the service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are expected to be the primary drivers of GDP, the scenario also predicts an increase in carbon emissions to 0.47 million tons by 2043, necessitating an accelerated energy transition to mitigate environmental degradation.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase Cape Verde's GDP per capita to US$15,663 by 2043, which is US$4,824 higher than the Current Path forecast. The Free Trade and Manufacturing/Transfers scenarios are identified as having the greatest potential for economic growth, while Health/WaSH and Governance have the least impact. A 'synergistic effect' from the combination of these scenarios is estimated to contribute approximately US$676 to GDP per capita in 2043.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, extreme poverty in Cape Verde is expected to decline significantly. By 2043, only 24,000 people (3.6% of the population) are projected to live below the US$3.20 poverty line, meaning 54,000 more people would be moved out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path forecast.
• The total size of the Cape Verde economy is projected to be US$8.7 billion in 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which is US$3.5 billion larger than the Current Path estimate of US$5.2 billion. The service sector is expected to be the largest contributor, adding 4.2 percentage points to GDP (US$2.8 billion), while agriculture's contribution is projected to decrease by 1.09 percentage points (US$0.14 billion).
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is associated with increased environmental costs. Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 0.18 million tons in 2019 to 0.47 million tons by 2043, which is higher than the 0.38 million tons projected in the Current Path forecast. The document states that an accelerated energy transition is required to mitigate this environmental degradation.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026cabo, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{CABO VERDE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CV&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }