AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic impact of achieving full gender parity in Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender Equality scenario' against a 'Current Path' and a 'Gender scenario', focusing on GDP growth, per capita income, and poverty reduction across different African regions and income levels.

• Achieving full gender parity by 2043 could significantly increase Africa's economy, with the Gender Equality scenario forecasting a GDP of US$9.1 trillion. This is US$1 trillion larger than the Current Path forecast of approximately US$8.1 trillion and US$740 billion larger than the Gender scenario.
• Regional gains in the Gender Equality scenario vary, with North Africa seeing the most positive momentum, adding US$469 billion to its economy compared to the Current Path. Other regional increases include West Africa (US$306 billion), East Africa (US$104.5 billion), Southern Africa (US$101 billion), and Central Africa (US$72 billion).
• The impact on GDP varies by country income level and specific nation. Low-income countries would see a combined GDP 10% larger, while low-middle-income countries would see a 15% increase. North African countries, including Somalia, would experience GDP increases of around 20–30% compared to the Current Path, while Egypt and Nigeria would see the largest improvements in absolute values.
• Gender equality could substantially reduce extreme poverty. In the Gender Equality scenario, the number of poor people (using the US$1.90 threshold) is forecast to drop to 314 million by 2043, which is 80 million fewer than the Current Path projection of 394 million. This represents a poverty rate of 15%, which is 3.5 percentage points lower than the Current Path forecast.
• The ability of a country to benefit from gender equality depends on its economic structure. Countries with high population growth and small, undiversified economies—such as Guinea Bissau, South Sudan, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, and Burundi—show the least improvement in absolute income levels because they may not be able to absorb the increased labor supply.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=10-impact-gender-equality

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=10-impact-gender-equality.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 April 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=10-impact-gender-equality |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026africa, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=16-gender&topic=10-impact-gender-equality}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }