ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report compares a 'Current Path' forecast for Angola with a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements. The Combined scenario projects a dramatic increase in GDP per capita to US$16,023 by 2043 and a significant reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions due to industrial and demographic growth.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', projects a significant increase in GDP per capita for Angola. GDP per capita is expected to reach US$7,864 by 2030 and US$16,023 by 2043, compared to a much slower growth rate on the Current Path.
• Extreme poverty is projected to persist and grow under the Current Path, with over 30 million people living under the US$3.20 per day line by 2043 and the poverty rate remaining above 50% until the late 2030s. In contrast, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects the number of extremely poor people to fall to 15 million and the poverty rate to 15% by 2043.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario shifts the sectoral composition of the economy, with services, ICT, and manufactures increasing their percentage contribution to GDP, while the energy sector's percentage contribution decreases by roughly three percentage points by the mid-2030s. In absolute terms, however, all sectors grow, with services projected to contribute US$126 billion more by 2040 than the Current Path.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase in all scenarios, doubling by 2030. While the Current Path projects 45.1 million tons of carbon by 2043, emissions increase more dramatically in the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario due to infrastructure development, agricultural activity, and manufacturing. To mitigate this, Angola has pledged under the Paris Climate Accords to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026angola, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }