ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report analyzes the projected economic and social outcomes for Angola under a 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' compared to a 'Current Path' forecast. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, predicts a dramatic increase in GDP per capita and a significant reduction in extreme poverty by 2043, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions due to industrial and demographic growth.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios including education, health, and infrastructure, is projected to significantly increase Angola's GDP per capita. Under this scenario, GDP per capita is expected to reach US$7,864 by 2030 and US$16,023 by 2043, compared to a much slower growth rate on the Current Path. A 'synergistic effect' from combining these scenarios is projected to add an additional US$1,969 to GDP per capita in 2043.
• Extreme poverty projections for Angola differ sharply between the two models. On the Current Path, the number of people living under the extreme poverty line of US$3.20 per day is projected to exceed 30 million by 2043, with the poverty rate not falling below 50% until the late 2030s. In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the number of extremely poor people is projected to peak in the late-2020s at approximately 24 million before falling to 15 million by 2043, with the poverty rate dropping to 15% by that year.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario predicts a shift in the sectoral composition of Angola's economy. While the energy sector's contribution to GDP in percentage terms is expected to decrease by roughly three percentage points by the mid-2030s, the absolute value added by all sectors is projected to increase. Services and manufactures are expected to see the largest absolute increases; by 2040, services are projected to contribute US$126 billion more and manufactures nearly US$41 billion more than the Current Path.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is associated with a dramatic increase in carbon emissions, driven by infrastructure development, agricultural activity, manufacturing, and demographic growth. This contrasts with the Current Path forecast, where emissions are projected to reach 45.1 million tons of carbon by 2043. To mitigate this, Angola has pledged under the Paris Climate Accords to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030.
• The overall size of the Angolan economy is projected to be significantly larger under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. By 2030, the economy is projected to be nearly US$37 billion greater than the Current Path, and by 2043, it is projected to reach US$849 billion, which is nearly double the Current Path forecast of US$443.3 billion.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026angola, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{ANGOLA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }