AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES

This research paper provides a forecast of Africa's employment landscape through 2043, highlighting a critical gap between the rapid growth of the working-age population and the economy's capacity to create formal jobs. It compares a 'Current Path' scenario with a 'Combined' scenario involving pro-growth policies, noting that while the services sector dominates GDP, the continent faces significant youth unemployment and a reliance on the informal sector.

• Africa's labour force is projected to nearly double between 2023 and 2043. In 2023, the labour force was 576 million people, and the working-age population (ages 15-64) was 847 million, representing approximately 57% of the total population of 1.486 billion.
• There is a significant imbalance between labour supply and demand. While the annual increase in the working-age population is expected to rise from 24 million in 2023 to 31 million by 2043, and the labour force increase from 18.4 million to 23.5 million annually, only about 2.6 to 3 million formal jobs are created each year. This leads to high levels of underemployment and unemployment, especially among youth, and pushes most employment growth into the informal sector.
• Africa and sub-Saharan Africa have higher labour force participation rates than the global average, attributed to a youthful population and high informal sector activity. In 2023, the rates were 64.5% for Africa and 67.7% for sub-Saharan Africa, compared to a global average of 60.5%.
• Economic forecasts for 2043 show a stark difference between the 'Current Path' and a 'Combined' scenario featuring pro-growth policies. Under the Current Path, GDP is forecast to grow from US$2.7 trillion in 2023 to US$6.4 trillion by 2043. In the Combined scenario, GDP could reach US$8.9 trillion, a 39.5% increase over the Current Path.
• The structure of Africa's economy is shifting toward services. In 2023, services contributed 53% to GDP, agriculture 14%, and manufactures 13%. By 2043, under the Current Path, services are expected to increase to 56.5% (or 57%), while agriculture is forecast to decline to 7.6% (or less than 8%) and manufactures to reach 16%.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Chipanda, B. (2026). AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Blessing Chipanda. AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=4 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{AFRICA EMPLOYMENT FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=13-work-jobs&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }