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The report analyzes the future of COMESA, projecting a population increase to 982.2 million by 2043. While the 'Current Path' shows a decline in extreme poverty from 35.4% to 18.8%, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests a more dramatic reduction to 4.1%. The analysis highlights significant economic disparities, with Egypt remaining the dominant economy and the largest carbon emitter. Sectoral scenarios indicate that free trade and 'leapfrogging' (renewable energy and digital tech) offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, though increased economic activity generally correlates with higher carbon emissions.

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, is projected to significantly increase COMESA's GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and nearly eradicate extreme poverty. While driving substantial economic growth, particularly in Malawi and Ethiopia, the scenario is also expected to increase carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043.

The AfCFTA's Protocol on Women and Youth in Trade (PWYT), released in February 2024, aims to promote the socio-economic development of women and youth by providing affirmative action in capacity building, market intelligence, and trade credit. However, the document identifies a significant gap in the protocol's ability to support informal micro-enterprises, which constitute a large portion of women-led trade in Africa. It recommends the implementation of a four-tiered system of cross-subsidisation based on enterprise size and scope, the creation of a continental Simplified Trade Regime (STR), and the transition from volatile official development assistance (ODA) to sustainable funding derived from common external tariffs or domestic sales taxes.

This research paper analyzes the potential costs and benefits for Ethiopia of joining the COMESA Free Trade Area (FTA). It finds that Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector is not yet competitive and that joining the FTA could increase net unemployment. However, it notes that Ethiopia is successfully expanding economic cooperation in energy and transport with neighbors such as Kenya, Sudan, Djibouti, and South Sudan, suggesting that bilateral relations may be more beneficial than formal trade liberalization.

The report details a forum held in Kampala, Uganda, where negotiators from 40 developing countries discussed the risks of traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) and the need for regulatory space to pursue sustainable development. Key discussions focused on the 'African Mining Vision', the dangers of 'land grabbing' in agriculture, and the systemic biases of investor-state arbitration. Participants advocated for a shift toward regional cooperation, the use of 'police powers' exceptions in treaties to protect public interest, and the implementation of domestic laws that prioritize national economic policies over investor demands.

The document analyzes the legal implications of defining 'investment' in international investment agreements (IIAs). It contrasts the traditional, broad asset-based definitions—often modeled on early German treaties—with more recent, precise approaches adopted by Canada, the U.S., ASEAN, and COMESA. The author highlights the tension between 'objective' and 'subjective' tests used by ICSID tribunals to determine jurisdiction, warning states that vague definitions can lead to unexpected arbitral rulings that exceed domestic legal understandings of foreign investment.

The document analyzes the inefficiencies of national customs bond systems in Southern Africa, where transporters must purchase separate bonds for every border crossed, increasing costs and delays. It evaluates the regional transit bond (RTB) initiatives of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), noting that both suffer from poor implementation and a lack of stakeholder awareness. By comparing these to the successful Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) system, the study argues that a participatory management structure involving the private sector and financial institutions is essential for the successful deployment of a regional system, particularly in anticipation of the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA).