{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"geography":["COMESA"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'COMESA' for facet 'geography' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":7,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?geography=COMESA","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"issafri-000149","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000149","title":"COMESA Development Futures","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-28","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the future of COMESA, projecting a population increase to 982.2 million by 2043. While the 'Current Path' shows a decline in extreme poverty from 35.4% to 18.8%, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests a more dramatic reduction to 4.1%. The analysis highlights significant economic disparities, with Egypt remaining the dominant economy and the largest carbon emitter. Sectoral scenarios indicate that free trade and 'leapfrogging' (renewable energy and digital tech) offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, though increased economic activity generally correlates with higher carbon emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"COMESA's population is projected to grow from 582.4 million in 2019 to 982.2 million by 2043, with Ethiopia having the largest population at 112 million in 2019.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under the Current Path forecast, extreme poverty (at the $1.90/day line) is expected to drop from 35.4% in 2019 to 18.8% by 2043, though 184.3 million people would still be extremely poor.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Egypt is the primary source of carbon emissions in the region, accounting for 51.9% of COMESA's 130 million tons of emissions in 2019 and projected to account for 48.9% in 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA by 2034, is projected to have the largest positive impact on GDP per capita, raising the average to US$7,218 by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Leapfrogging scenario, focusing on renewable energy and digital technology, could increase average electricity access to 84% by 2043 and result in lower carbon emissions than the Current Path forecast.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, would significantly increase average GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and reduce the poverty rate to 4.1%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural production shortfalls are expected to widen from 59 million metric tons in 2019 to 294.1 million metric tons by 2043 under the Current Path, increasing food insecurity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables; by 2043, renewable energy (including hydro) is expected to account for 52.7% of total energy produced.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000149#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","renewable energy","agriculture","food security","energy transition","hydropower"],"geography_discussed":["Egypt","Ethiopia","Seychelles","Burundi","Malawi","Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"issafri-000226","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/issafri-000226","title":"COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES","publisher":{"name":"Institute for Security Studies","organization":"institute-for-security-studies"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05-28","source_url":"https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, is projected to significantly increase COMESA's GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and nearly eradicate extreme poverty. While driving substantial economic growth, particularly in Malawi and Ethiopia, the scenario is also expected to increase carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000226#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to raise COMESA's average GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043, representing a 56% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$6,563.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000226#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the sectoral interventions, Free Trade is expected to provide the highest additional GDP per capita for COMESA (US$655 in 2043), followed by Leapfrogging (US$412). The overall synergistic effect of all interventions adds another US$686 to the 2043 GDP per capita.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000226#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The scenario is projected to nearly eliminate extreme poverty (at the US$1.90 line) in COMESA, reducing the poverty rate from 35.4% in 2019 to 4.1% by 2043, which would lift 146.9 million people out of extreme poverty.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000226#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic growth under the scenario would be uneven across members; Malawi is projected to see the largest percentage increase in GDP per capita (135.1%) and GDP (145% more than Current Path), while Mauritius and Seychelles would see the smallest increases.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000226#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Increased economic activity is projected to raise carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043, which is 73 million tons above the Current Path forecast. Egypt is expected to remain the largest emitter at 177 million tons, while Zambia is projected to have the largest percentage increase in emissions (nearly 135%).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"issafri-000226#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","economic growth","industrial manufacturing"],"geography_discussed":["Democratic Republic of the Congo","Somalia","Madagascar","Mauritius","Seychelles","Malawi","Uganda","Ethiopia","Burundi","Eswatini","Djibouti","Eritrea","Zambia","Egypt"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["forecasting","scenario analysis"]},{"id":"saiia-001322","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-001322","title":"Skills Foresight in SADC: Making the AfCFTA Protocol on Women and Youth in Trade Work to Achieve Inclusivity","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2025-05-05","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/research/skills-foresight-in-sadc-making-the-afcfta-protocol-on-women-and-youth-in-trade-work-to-achieve-inclusivity/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The AfCFTA's Protocol on Women and Youth in Trade (PWYT), released in February 2024, aims to promote the socio-economic development of women and youth by providing affirmative action in capacity building, market intelligence, and trade credit. However, the document identifies a significant gap in the protocol's ability to support informal micro-enterprises, which constitute a large portion of women-led trade in Africa. It recommends the implementation of a four-tiered system of cross-subsidisation based on enterprise size and scope, the creation of a continental Simplified Trade Regime (STR), and the transition from volatile official development assistance (ODA) to sustainable funding derived from common external tariffs or domestic sales taxes.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The PWYT faces an institutional bias toward formal small and medium-sized enterprises, failing to sufficiently address the needs of informal micro-enterprises, which are the primary vehicle for women-controlled and women-run businesses in Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Informal cross-border trade (ICBT) in Africa is predominantly driven by women, with estimates suggesting they undertake 70% of such trade, contrasting sharply with their low representation in digital trade platforms.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The author proposes a four-tiered system of vertical equity to cross-subsidise trade services, where large global and continental multinationals contribute to the costs of supporting semi-formal small and informal micro-enterprises.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Existing Simplified Trade Regimes (STRs), such as the one introduced by COMESA in 2010, have become less effective over time due to increasing documentation and application costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementation of the PWYT is complicated by the overlapping memberships of Regional Economic Communities (RECs), which have divergent trade agreements and varying levels of commitment to gender equity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Current funding for the AfCFTA and RECs is overly reliant on volatile official development assistance (ODA) and inconsistent member contributions, necessitating a shift toward sustainable internal revenue sources.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The document suggests a realistic five-year timeline for Phase I amendments to the PWYT, including the revision of origination rules and the definition of non-tariff barriers based on enterprise size and ownership demographics.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-001322#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["trade policy","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":["COMESA","SADC","ECOWAS","EAC"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy brief","implementation assessment"]},{"id":"saiia-000231","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-000231","title":"Ethiopia, Regional Integration and the COMESA Free Trade Area","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2014-08-20","source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/research/ethiopia-regional-integration-and-the-comesa-free-trade-area/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"This research paper analyzes the potential costs and benefits for Ethiopia of joining the COMESA Free Trade Area (FTA). It finds that Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector is not yet competitive and that joining the FTA could increase net unemployment. However, it notes that Ethiopia is successfully expanding economic cooperation in energy and transport with neighbors such as Kenya, Sudan, Djibouti, and South Sudan, suggesting that bilateral relations may be more beneficial than formal trade liberalization.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000231#summary","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Joining the COMESA Free Trade Area (FTA) could lead to a net increase in unemployment in Ethiopia because job losses in some sectors would not be fully offset by employment gains in others.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000231#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-08-17"},{"text":"Ethiopia's manufacturing sector is currently too underdeveloped to compete within the COMESA FTA, as it cannot provide the region with high-quality goods at competitive prices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000231#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-08-17"}],"climate_tags":["energy transition"],"geography_discussed":["Kenya","Sudan","Djibouti","South Sudan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["summary"]},{"id":"iisd-001383","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-001383","title":"REPORT ON The Fifth Annual Forum of Developing Country Investment Negotiators","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2011","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/fifth_forum_report_jan_2012.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report details a forum held in Kampala, Uganda, where negotiators from 40 developing countries discussed the risks of traditional Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) and the need for regulatory space to pursue sustainable development. Key discussions focused on the 'African Mining Vision', the dangers of 'land grabbing' in agriculture, and the systemic biases of investor-state arbitration. Participants advocated for a shift toward regional cooperation, the use of 'police powers' exceptions in treaties to protect public interest, and the implementation of domestic laws that prioritize national economic policies over investor demands.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001383#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Traditional international investment treaties are often based on western protection concepts rather than development objectives, which can restrict the ability of developing states to implement pro-development policies.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001383#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Investor-state arbitration is viewed as heavily biased toward investors due to the inability of states to recover legal costs even when they win, and the potential for catastrophic awards that can impact national budgets.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001383#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"In Africa, large-scale land acquisitions by foreign investors—often termed 'land grabbing'—have frequently occurred without consulting local communities or respecting women's land rights, hindering rural development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001383#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The African Mining Vision seeks to move away from the 'Washington consensus' approach, which prioritized foreign investors, toward a framework that ensures equitable participation by local businesses and communities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001383#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Developing countries are increasingly finding that Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) do not necessarily attract more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), leading countries like South Africa and Ecuador to review or denounce them.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001383#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To protect regulatory autonomy, negotiators are encouraged to include 'carve-outs' for public interest measures and 'police powers' exceptions in treaties to prevent legitimate health or environmental regulations from being classified as indirect expropriation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-001383#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["sustainable development","mining","land tenure","environmental protection"],"geography_discussed":["Liberia","Ghana","Sri Lanka","Ecuador","South Africa","ASEAN","CARICOM","COMESA"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["policy analysis","legal analysis","case study"]},{"id":"iisd-002544","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iisd-002544","title":"Definition of Investment in International Investment Agreements","publisher":{"name":"International Institute for Sustainable Development","organization":"international-institute-for-sustainable-development"},"document_type":"guide","language":"en","date_published":"2009-08","source_url":"https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/best_practices_bulletin_1.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the legal implications of defining 'investment' in international investment agreements (IIAs). It contrasts the traditional, broad asset-based definitions—often modeled on early German treaties—with more recent, precise approaches adopted by Canada, the U.S., ASEAN, and COMESA. The author highlights the tension between 'objective' and 'subjective' tests used by ICSID tribunals to determine jurisdiction, warning states that vague definitions can lead to unexpected arbitral rulings that exceed domestic legal understandings of foreign investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Most IIAs historically used a broad, asset-based definition of investment, largely modeled on the 1960 Germany-Malaysia Bilateral Investment Treaty, which describes investment as \"every kind of asset.\"","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Broad definitions in IIAs can lead to assets being classified as investments by tribunals even when they do not qualify as such under the host state's domestic laws, such as a contract for pre-inspection services in the case of Société Générale de Surveillance SA v. Pakistan.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"For arbitrations under the ICSID Convention, tribunals often apply a \"double barrel\" test, requiring the asset to meet the definition of investment in both the specific IIA and Article 25 of the ICSID Convention.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'objective approach' to ICSID jurisdiction, exemplified by the Salini v. Morocco case, requires an investment to meet five specific criteria: duration, regularity of profit and return, assumption of risk, substantial commitment, and significance for the host state’s development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'subjective approach' rejects independent objective criteria for ICSID jurisdiction, arguing instead that the definition of investment should be determined by the consent and language agreed upon by the parties in the IIA.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Canada has adopted an 'exhaustive approach' in its Model Foreign Investment Protection Agreement (FIPA), using a closed list of qualifying assets and specific exclusions to increase predictability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The U.S. Model BIT and the U.S.-Rwanda BIT (2008) use a non-exhaustive approach but include a limiting requirement that the asset must possess \"the characteristics of an investment,\" such as commitment of capital, expectation of profit, or assumption of risk.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The COMESA Investment Agreement (CCIA) limits the scope of intellectual property rights (IPR) by requiring them to be associated with a business operating in the host state, and explicitly excludes market share and loans to governments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 2009 ASEAN Comprehensive Agreement combines a traditional asset list with footnotes requiring assets to exhibit characteristics of an investment (commitment of capital, expectation of gain, or assumption of risk) and excludes claims arising solely from commercial contracts for the sale of goods or services.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iisd-002544#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Germany","Canada","United States","Turkey","Pakistan","Rwanda","Malaysia","Egypt","Morocco","Bangladesh","Czech Republic","ASEAN","COMESA"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["legal analysis","policy guide"]},{"id":"saiia-000587","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/saiia-000587","title":"Regional Transit Bonds","publisher":{"name":"South African Institute of International Affairs","organization":"south-african-institute-of-international-affairs"},"document_type":"case study","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/141125_EDIP_GIZreport_pg61-68_CS6.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document analyzes the inefficiencies of national customs bond systems in Southern Africa, where transporters must purchase separate bonds for every border crossed, increasing costs and delays. It evaluates the regional transit bond (RTB) initiatives of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), noting that both suffer from poor implementation and a lack of stakeholder awareness. By comparing these to the successful Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) system, the study argues that a participatory management structure involving the private sector and financial institutions is essential for the successful deployment of a regional system, particularly in anticipation of the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000587#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"National customs bond systems in Southern Africa increase the cost and complexity of trade because transporters must acquire a bond for each border crossed, with transport costs reaching up to 55% of export costs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000587#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The SADC Transit Management System (TMS) significantly reduces transit times compared to national bond systems; for example, a trip from the DRC to South Africa can be reduced from 14 days to 4–5 days.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000587#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a critical lack of awareness regarding regional transit bonds among stakeholders, particularly border staff, and the private sector was largely excluded from the design and implementation phases of the SADC and COMESA systems.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000587#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The SADC TMS is less efficient than the COMESA and TIR systems because its bonds are claimable only from the bondholder's local institution or representative, whereas TIR and COMESA use a carnet claimable from any local institution within a regional financial pool.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000587#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The success of the TIR system is attributed to its participatory management structure, which includes the UNECE Working Party and the International Road Transport Union (IRU) to ensure continuous input from both government and private sector transport operators.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000587#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To improve the SADC and COMESA TMSs and prepare for the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA), the document proposes a management structure featuring a consultative committee for all stakeholders, permanent oversight staff, and a bond guarantee structure modeled after TIR.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"saiia-000587#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["international trade"],"geography_discussed":["Democratic Republic of the Congo","South Africa","Zambia","Zimbabwe","Botswana","Europe","Greater Mekong Subregion","East Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["case study","comparative analysis","policy recommendation"]}]}