COMESA Development Futures

The report analyzes the future of COMESA, projecting a population increase to 982.2 million by 2043. While the 'Current Path' shows a decline in extreme poverty from 35.4% to 18.8%, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests a more dramatic reduction to 4.1%. The analysis highlights significant economic disparities, with Egypt remaining the dominant economy and the largest carbon emitter. Sectoral scenarios indicate that free trade and 'leapfrogging' (renewable energy and digital tech) offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, though increased economic activity generally correlates with higher carbon emissions.

• COMESA's population is projected to grow from 582.4 million in 2019 to 982.2 million by 2043, with Ethiopia having the largest population at 112 million in 2019.
• Under the Current Path forecast, extreme poverty (at the $1.90/day line) is expected to drop from 35.4% in 2019 to 18.8% by 2043, though 184.3 million people would still be extremely poor.
• Egypt is the primary source of carbon emissions in the region, accounting for 51.9% of COMESA's 130 million tons of emissions in 2019 and projected to account for 48.9% in 2043.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA by 2034, is projected to have the largest positive impact on GDP per capita, raising the average to US$7,218 by 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario, focusing on renewable energy and digital technology, could increase average electricity access to 84% by 2043 and result in lower carbon emissions than the Current Path forecast.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, would significantly increase average GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and reduce the poverty rate to 4.1%.
• Agricultural production shortfalls are expected to widen from 59 million metric tons in 2019 to 294.1 million metric tons by 2043 under the Current Path, increasing food insecurity.
• Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables; by 2043, renewable energy (including hydro) is expected to account for 52.7% of total energy produced.

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). COMESA Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. COMESA Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=COMESA Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026comesa, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{COMESA Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }