ISS African Futures

This report provides development forecasts for the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) up to 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' trajectory—based on existing policies—against various sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, analyzing impacts on GDP, poverty, demographics, and carbon emissions.

• Under the Current Path forecast, COMESA's population is expected to grow from 582.4 million in 2019 to 982.2 million by 2043. Ethiopia is the most populous member, with 112 million people in 2019.
• The Current Path forecast predicts a significant gap in agricultural production and demand, with a shortfall of 59 million metric tons in 2019 increasing to 294.1 million metric tons by 2043. Egypt and the DR Congo are projected to have the largest gaps, both exceeding 50 million metric tons by 2043.
• Extreme poverty (at the $1.90/day line) is projected to decline from 35.4% of the population in 2019 to 18.8% by 2043 under the Current Path, though 184.3 million people would still be classified as extremely poor.
• Egypt is the primary source of carbon emissions in the region, accounting for 51.9% of COMESA's 130 million tons of emissions in 2019 and projected to account for 48.9% by 2043.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is projected to have the largest positive impact on GDP per capita of all individual scenarios, raising the average to US$7,218 by 2043, which is US$655 higher than the Current Path.
• The Leapfrogging scenario focuses on renewable energy and digital technology, projecting that average total electricity access would reach 84% by 2043, which is 11 percentage points higher than Africa's Current Path forecast.
• The Agriculture scenario could significantly reduce food import dependence; for example, Ethiopia's agricultural imports as a percentage of demand would drop from 5% in 2019 to -39% by 2043, making it a net exporter.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates all 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to increase average GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 (US$3,672 above the Current Path) and reduce the extreme poverty rate to 4.1%.
• While the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario drives economic growth, it also increases carbon emissions by 73 million tons compared to the Current Path forecast by 2043, totaling 380 million metric tons.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }