COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, is projected to significantly increase COMESA's GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and nearly eradicate extreme poverty. While driving substantial economic growth, particularly in Malawi and Ethiopia, the scenario is also expected to increase carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to raise COMESA's average GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043, representing a 56% increase over the Current Path forecast of US$6,563.
• Among the sectoral interventions, Free Trade is expected to provide the highest additional GDP per capita for COMESA (US$655 in 2043), followed by Leapfrogging (US$412). The overall synergistic effect of all interventions adds another US$686 to the 2043 GDP per capita.
• The scenario is projected to nearly eliminate extreme poverty (at the US$1.90 line) in COMESA, reducing the poverty rate from 35.4% in 2019 to 4.1% by 2043, which would lift 146.9 million people out of extreme poverty.
• Economic growth under the scenario would be uneven across members; Malawi is projected to see the largest percentage increase in GDP per capita (135.1%) and GDP (145% more than Current Path), while Mauritius and Seychelles would see the smallest increases.
• Increased economic activity is projected to raise carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043, which is 73 million tons above the Current Path forecast. Egypt is expected to remain the largest emitter at 177 million tons, while Zambia is projected to have the largest percentage increase in emissions (nearly 135%).

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026comesa, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }