COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), integrating 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast GDP per capita, poverty levels, and carbon emissions by 2043. It highlights the synergistic effects of multi-sectoral reform, projecting significant economic growth and poverty reduction, while noting an inevitable increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios, is projected to significantly increase COMESA's average GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043, representing a 56% increase (US$3,672 higher) over the Current Path forecast.
• The Free Trade scenario provides the highest individual contribution to additional GDP per capita, adding US$655 by 2043, followed by the Leapfrogging scenario at US$412. The 'synergistic effect' of implementing all interventions adds a further US$686 in 2043.
• Extreme poverty at the US$1.90 line is projected to drop from 35.4% in 2019 to 4.1% by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, reducing the number of extremely poor people by 146.9 million compared to the Current Path forecast. Extreme poverty would be eradicated in Malawi and four other low-income countries, though Burundi and Madagascar would maintain poverty rates above 17%.
• The scenario projects a shift in economic composition by 2043, with the service sector's contribution to total GDP increasing by 5.3 points and the manufacturing sector's contribution decreasing by 3.4 percentage points compared to the Current Path forecast. Djibouti is an exception, with its manufacturing sector projected to contribute 7.7 percentage points more and its service sector 6.7 percentage points less.
• Economic growth is expected to drive carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043, which is 73 million tons more than the Current Path forecast. Egypt is projected to remain the largest emitter at 177 million tons, while Zambia is expected to see the largest percentage increase in emissions (nearly 135%).

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026comesa, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=COMESA&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }