Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario is projected to accelerate Africa's average annual economic growth to 6% between 2027 and 2050, resulting in a total GDP nearly US$1 trillion higher than the baseline by 2050. This trajectory is expected to increase average GDP per capita by approximately US$510 and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty by 63 million, bringing the poverty rate down to 11.5% by 2050.

• Under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, Africa's economy is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 6% from 2027 to 2050, which is one percentage point higher than the 5% growth projected in the Current Path scenario. This would result in a total GDP increase of nearly US$948 billion (in 2017 dollars) by 2050 relative to the baseline, with the most significant absolute increases occurring in South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria.
• By 2050, the average GDP per capita in Africa (at purchasing power parity) is projected to be approximately US$510 higher under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario than under the Current Path, despite a projected population exceeding 2.5 billion by that year.
• The combination of technological innovations and improved transport and energy infrastructure is projected to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty to 299 million by 2050, which is 63 million fewer than the Current Path. This would lower the poverty rate to 11.5%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the baseline. The most significant absolute reductions in poverty are expected in Nigeria and DR Congo, with low-income countries seeing the largest gains (38.6 million fewer people in poverty) and lower-middle-income countries seeing 23 million fewer.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026impact, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }