Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the economic and social impacts of a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario for Africa through 2050, comparing it against a 'Current Path' baseline.

• Under the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario, Africa's economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 6% between 2027 and 2050. This is one percentage point higher than the 5% growth projected in the Current Path scenario, resulting in a total GDP that is nearly US$1 trillion (specifically US$948 billion in 2017 dollars) higher by 2050.
• The scenario predicts that by 2050, Africa's average GDP per capita (at purchasing power parity) will increase by approximately US$510 compared to the Current Path, occurring in a context where the continent's population is expected to exceed 2.5 billion by that year.
• The combination of technological innovations and improved energy and transport infrastructure is projected to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty to 299 million by 2050. This is 63 million fewer people than the Current Path, lowering the poverty rate to 11.5%, which is 2.4 percentage points below the baseline.
• The most significant poverty reductions are expected in low-income countries (38.6 million fewer people in extreme poverty) and lower-middle-income countries (23 million fewer). The largest absolute reductions in poverty are expected in countries with large poor populations, specifically Nigeria and DR Congo.
• While all African countries are expected to see gains relative to the Current Path, the most pronounced absolute increases in economic growth will be recorded by the largest economies, including South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026impact, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Impact of the Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=09-impact}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }