NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for North Africa, projecting economic growth, poverty reduction, and sectoral shifts by 2043. The scenario integrates 11 sectoral improvements to forecast a significant increase in GDP per capita and a reduction in extreme poverty, while noting an increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase North Africa's GDP per capita by an additional US$5,504 to reach US$21,222 by 2043, which is 35% higher than the Current Path forecast. The most significant gains are expected in Egypt (US$6,496) and Algeria (US$4,818), while Morocco (US$3,984) and Mauritania (US$2,929) are expected to benefit the least.
• The Free Trade scenario is identified as the most effective driver for improving GDP per capita in the region by 2043, with projected gains of US$1,057. Other significant contributors include Manufacturing/Transfers (US$894) and Leapfrogging (US$512), alongside a 'synergistic effect' valued at US$610.
• Extreme poverty (defined as living on less than US$1.90) is projected to drop from 2.61 million people (1.3%) in 2019 to 150,000 people (0.1%) by 2043. Mauritania is expected to see the most pronounced reduction (6.3 percentage points), followed by Egypt (0.5 percentage points), while Algeria will see the smallest reduction (0.3 percentage points) compared to the Current Path.
• By 2043, the total GDP of North Africa is estimated to grow from US$900 billion in 2019 to approximately US$3 trillion. Egypt is projected to account for more than half of the region's total GDP, with Algeria accounting for 22%.
• The service sector is expected to be the largest contributor to the economy by 2043, accounting for 63.8% of GDP, with the highest contribution in Egypt (60%) and lowest in Algeria (34.6%). Algeria is projected to have the largest manufacturing contribution to GDP in the region at 31.4%.
• Carbon emissions in North Africa are projected to increase by 17% under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, reaching 341 million tons by 2043 compared to 291 million tons on the Current Path. Egypt and Algeria are expected to contribute 51.8% and 23% of these emissions, respectively.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026north, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }