NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly increase North Africa's GDP per capita and total GDP by 2043, with the most substantial gains driven by free trade under AfCFTA, manufacturing, and leapfrogging. While the scenario predicts a sharp decline in extreme poverty—particularly in Mauritania and Egypt—it also forecasts a 17% increase in carbon emissions compared to the Current Path, primarily driven by Egypt and Algeria.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase North Africa's GDP per capita by an additional US$5,504 to US$21,222 by 2043, which is 35% higher than the Current Path forecast. Egypt and Algeria are expected to see the largest gains, with additional increases of US$6,496 and US$4,818 respectively, while Morocco and Mauritania are projected to benefit the least.
• Promoting trade among African countries via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is identified as the most effective way to improve regional GDP per capita. By 2043, the Free Trade scenario is expected to provide the highest impact with additional gains of US$1,057, followed by Manufacturing/Transfers (US$894) and Leapfrogging (US$512).
• Extreme poverty in the region is projected to decline from 2.61 million people (1.3%) in 2019 to 150,000 people (0.1%) by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. Mauritania is expected to see the most pronounced reduction (6.3 percentage points), followed by Egypt (0.5 percentage points), while Algeria will see the smallest reduction (0.3 percentage points).
• The total GDP of North Africa is estimated to grow from US$900 billion in 2019 to approximately US$3 trillion by 2043, making the economy 50% larger than the Current Path forecast. By 2043, Egypt is projected to account for over half of the region's total GDP, with Algeria accounting for 22%.
• Carbon emissions in North Africa are projected to reach 341 million tons by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, a 17% increase over the Current Path's 291 million tons. Egypt and Algeria are expected to be responsible for approximately two-thirds of these emissions, contributing 51.8% and 23% respectively.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026north, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=N-AFR&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }