ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper presents economic and social scenario comparisons for Algeria from 2019 to 2043. It evaluates a 'Current Path' against a 'Combined scenario'—which integrates eight sectoral improvements including governance, education, and infrastructure—and individual scenarios such as the AfCFTA. The analysis covers GDP per capita, poverty levels, economic structure, inequality, life expectancy, carbon emissions, and energy production.

• Under the Combined scenario, Algeria's GDP per capita is projected to reach US$22,727 by 2043, representing a 38.3% increase (US$6,293) over the Current Path's estimate of US$16,437. Among individual scenarios, the AfCFTA is expected to have the most significant impact, increasing GDP per capita by US$1,711 (10.4%) relative to the Current Path, followed by Governance (US$981 or 6.0%) and Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging (US$676 or 4.1%).
• The Combined scenario is projected to significantly reduce extreme poverty (defined as US$3.20 per day), leaving only 3,000 people in extreme poverty by 2043, compared to 394,000 in the Current Path. The Manufacturing scenario is the most effective individual driver for poverty reduction, lifting 288,000 people out of extreme poverty, while the AfCFTA scenario would reduce extreme poverty by 52.5% (187,000 people).
• By 2043, the Combined scenario predicts Algeria's economy will be US$271.3 billion (59.8%) larger than the Current Path's US$453.5 billion. The AfCFTA scenario alone is expected to increase GDP by US$71.3 billion (15.7%). Total value added across all sectors is projected to rise from US$453.5 billion in the Current Path to US$724.9 billion in the Combined scenario.
• The Combined scenario anticipates a shift in economic structure by 2043, with the service sector remaining the largest contributor to GDP, increasing its share from 33.9% to 36.6% and adding US$111.8 billion relative to the Current Path. The manufacturing sector is expected to contribute US$111.2 billion more than the Current Path, raising its GDP share by approximately 4.4 percentage points to 33.7%.
• The Combined scenario is expected to reduce the informal economy's share of GDP by approximately 8.2% relative to the Current Path's 25.6% by 2043. Additionally, the scenario projects that life expectancy at birth will reach approximately 82 years by 2043, which is 1.5 years higher than the Current Path, and the Gini coefficient will drop to 0.28, reducing inequality by 12.5% relative to the Current Path.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase with economic growth; the Current Path estimates 71 million tons of carbon by 2043 (up from 45 million in 2019), while the Combined scenario estimates 85 million tons (19.2% higher than the Current Path). The primary drivers of this increase in the Combined scenario are the Agriculture, Manufacturing, and AfCFTA scenarios.
• Algeria's energy production is dominated by gas and oil. In 2019, total energy production was 926 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), with gas accounting for 59.8% (554 million BOE) and oil accounting for about 40% (370 million BOE). By 2043, the Current Path projects total production will reach 2.6 billion BOE, with gas production increasing to 2.2 billion BOE and oil production reaching 406 million BOE.
• As of 2021, Algeria's proved conventional hydrocarbon reserves consisted of gas (70.4%), oil (28.9%), and coal (0.7%), with oil reserves at 12.2 billion barrels and gas reserves at 4.503 Tcm. Unconventional resources are dominated by shale gas, which makes up 96% (5.7 billion BOE) of the unconventional matrix, with tight oil making up 4%.

APA

Chipanda, B. (2026). ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing. ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |title=ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2026algeria, author = {Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }