ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The document models the potential impact of different development paths on Algeria's GDP, poverty levels, and energy landscape by 2043. It finds that a 'Combined scenario'—integrating improvements in governance, education, health, and infrastructure—would significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty and inequality. However, this economic growth is projected to increase carbon emissions. The analysis also highlights Algeria's heavy reliance on gas and oil, while noting its potential for renewable energy development.

• In the Combined scenario, Algeria's GDP per capita is projected to reach US$22,727 by 2043, which is 38.3% (US$6,293) higher than the Current Path's estimate of US$16,437.
• The AfCFTA scenario is identified as having the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita and the overall economy, increasing GDP by US$71.3 billion (15.7%) relative to the Current Path by 2043.
• The Combined scenario is expected to drastically reduce extreme poverty (at the US$3.20 per day threshold), lifting 391,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path, leaving only 3,000 people in extreme poverty by 2043.
• Economic expansion in the Combined scenario is driven largely by the service and manufacturing sectors; the service sector's contribution to GDP is projected to rise from 33.9% to 36.6%, while manufacturing will increase by 4.4 percentage points.
• The Combined scenario is projected to reduce the informal economy's share of GDP by approximately 8.2% relative to the Current Path's 25.6%.
• While the Combined scenario improves social metrics—increasing life expectancy to 82 years and reducing the Gini coefficient by 12.5%—it also increases total carbon emissions to 85 million tons by 2043, which is 19.2% higher than the Current Path.
• Algeria's energy production is dominated by gas and oil; in 2019, gas production was 554 million BOE (59.8% of total production), and total energy production is forecast to grow from 926 million BOE in 2019 to 2.6 billion BOE by 2043 under the Current Path.

APA

Chipanda, B. (2026). ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons

Chicago

Chipanda, Blessing. ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chipanda |first1=Blessing |title=ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chipanda2026algeria, author = {Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{ALGERIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=DZ&topic=04-comparisons}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }