Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers analyzes the state of governance in Africa, comparing its security, capacity, and inclusion metrics against the rest of the world. It examines the relationship between governance quality, stability, and economic development, highlighting the risks associated with autocratic leadership and the role of democratic institutions as shock absorbers.

This research paper provides an introductory overview of Tunisia's political and economic trajectory, from its independence in 1956 through the 2010 revolution and subsequent democratic regression starting in 2021.

This report by Ember analyzes the economic impact of the 2026 Hormuz crisis on Türkiye, detailing how the country's high dependence on imported fossil fuels leads to significant increases in its energy import bill. It argues that accelerating clean electrification in transport and buildings is the most effective way to permanently reduce these structural economic risks.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Morocco's development trajectory toward 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast with eight sectoral scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It highlights Morocco's transition toward higher-value manufacturing, its strategic geographic position, and critical challenges including water scarcity, energy import dependence, and regional territorial disputes.

This introductory report provides a geographic, political, and demographic overview of the Kingdom of Morocco, detailing its territorial disputes, governance structure, and climate vulnerability.

This introductory report provides a geographic, demographic, and socio-economic overview of Libya, detailing its status as an upper-middle-income country heavily dependent on oil reserves and currently experiencing political fragmentation and institutional instability.

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for North Africa, projecting economic growth, poverty reduction, and sectoral shifts by 2043. The scenario integrates 11 sectoral improvements to forecast a significant increase in GDP per capita and a reduction in extreme poverty, while noting an increase in carbon emissions.

This research paper provides a comprehensive geographic, political, and socio-economic introduction to Africa, detailing its physical landscape, colonial history, administrative structures, and immense cultural and linguistic diversity.

This research paper presents economic and social scenario comparisons for Algeria from 2019 to 2043. It evaluates a 'Current Path' against a 'Combined scenario'—which integrates eight sectoral improvements including governance, education, and infrastructure—and individual scenarios such as the AfCFTA. The analysis covers GDP per capita, poverty levels, economic structure, inequality, life expectancy, carbon emissions, and energy production.

The global electricity sector has transitioned from fossil-fuelled growth to clean growth, with clean power meeting all global demand growth in 2025. This shift is driven largely by the plateauing of fossil generation in China and the rapid scale-up of solar and wind power. Battery storage is now emerging as a critical technology to displace fossil fuels during non-daylight hours, particularly in high-solar regions.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines gender discrimination within the family sphere in Africa, focusing on child marriage, the unequal distribution of unpaid care and domestic work, and disparities in divorce and inheritance rights.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the state and requirements of vocational education in Africa, highlighting a significant mismatch between graduate skills and employer needs, low enrollment in vocational programs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the challenges posed by the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic impact of achieving full gender parity in Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender Equality scenario' against a 'Current Path' and a 'Gender scenario', focusing on GDP growth, per capita income, and poverty reduction across different African regions and income levels.

This report analyzes energy demand and production forecasts for Africa, comparing a 'Current Path' scenario with a 'Combined' scenario characterized by faster economic growth and policy interventions to constrain energy exports for domestic security.

The Climate Bonds Initiative report argues that the European Union must accelerate its energy transition to eliminate a critical vulnerability: its 60% reliance on fossil fuel imports. It proposes a five-step strategy focusing on electrification, grid connectivity, flexibility, industrial decarbonization, and the use of the EU Methane Regulation to phase out imports from high-risk suppliers like Russia and the US. The report highlights that while 89% of end-energy demand can be electrified, current investment levels (2.1% of GDP) fall short of the 1.5 trillion euros per year required by 2050.

This report evaluates the state of industrialisation in Africa, analyzing the causes of stagnation and premature deindustrialisation while modeling a 'Manufacturing scenario' to forecast the potential economic benefits of scaled-up investment in the sector by 2043.

This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social development of Africa by 2043 under a 'Combined scenario' compared to a 'Current Path'. The Combined scenario, which integrates policy coherence, governance, and strategic investment, projects significantly higher GDP growth, increased GDP per capita, and a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty.

This research paper analyzes projections for Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions up to 2063, comparing a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' that incorporates ambitious development improvements. It identifies a small number of key countries whose energy policies will determine the continent's overall contribution to global emissions.