Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion

The 2026 Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This increase is driven by a 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices and a 45% rise in European gas prices. Türkiye's high import dependence—95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal—makes its economy structurally vulnerable to global price shocks. Road transport is the largest contributor to the energy bill, accounting for nearly one-third of the total in 2025. The report suggests that transitioning to electric vehicles and heat pumps could permanently lower import costs, noting that 1 million electric cars could save $900 million annually and a 10% transition to heat pumps in homes could save $1 billion annually.

• The Hormuz crisis, resulting from the US-Israel war with Iran, is expected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion from March to the end of 2026, representing a 30% increase in the annual bill.
• The projected $14 billion increase is primarily driven by oil and gas, with oil import costs rising by $7.7 billion and gas import costs increasing by $6.4 billion.
• Türkiye exhibits high structural dependence on imported fossil fuels, with import rates of 95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal.
• Road transport is the single largest driver of the energy import bill; in 2025, it accounted for approximately $15 billion, or nearly one-third of the total net energy import bill.
• Clean electrification of end-use sectors offers significant recurring savings: every one million electric vehicles could avoid $900 million in annual imports, and replacing gas with heat pumps in 10% of homes could reduce imports by $1 billion annually.

APA

Gümüş, B. S. (2026). Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf

Chicago

Gümüş, BahadƽIR Sercan. Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gümüş |first1=BahadƽIR Sercan |title=Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion |publisher=Ember |date=12 June 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gm2026hormuz, author = {Gümüş, BahadƽIR Sercan}, title = {{Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye \$14 billion}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }