Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion

This report by Ember analyzes the economic impact of the 2026 Hormuz crisis on Türkiye, detailing how the country's high dependence on imported fossil fuels leads to significant increases in its energy import bill. It argues that accelerating clean electrification in transport and buildings is the most effective way to permanently reduce these structural economic risks.

• The Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran starting 28 February 2026, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This represents a 30% increase in the annual import bill, with approximately $8 billion attributed to oil and over $6 billion to gas.
• Türkiye maintains a high structural dependence on energy imports, meeting two-thirds of its energy needs through imported fossil fuels. Source-based import rates are 95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal. Between 2015 and 2024, the country paid an average of $42 billion annually for net energy imports, which is 4.5% of its GDP.
• Road transport is the largest contributor to Türkiye's energy import bill. In 2025, road transport accounted for approximately $15 billion, or nearly one-third of the total net energy import bill. Of the $7.7 billion increase in oil costs expected in 2026 due to the Hormuz crisis, $5.2 billion stems directly from road transport.
• The impact of the Hormuz crisis on gas imports is delayed due to contract structures where pricing is partly indexed to oil with a lag of about nine months. If prices remain at 1 May 2026 levels, the gas import bill will rise by $6.4 billion by year-end, with $2.3 billion from residential consumption, $1.6 billion from electricity generation, and $1.5 billion from industry. If high prices persist, costs could rise by $13 billion in 2027.
• Türkiye's energy import burden relative to GDP is higher than in other similar G20 countries; it ranks second after South Korea (5.1%) with its 4.5% average between 2015 and 2024. The risk of this dependency was highlighted in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war, when net energy imports peaked at over $80 billion and the cost as a share of GDP rose to 8.6%.
• Clean electrification of end-use sectors could permanently lower import costs. Every one million electric vehicles on the road would avoid roughly $900 million in annual fossil fuel imports. Additionally, replacing gas with heat pumps in 10% of homes would reduce annual energy imports by approximately $1 billion.
• To align with global climate commitments and reduce the import bill, the report suggests incorporating a 35% electrification target by 2035—as signaled by Türkiye's COP31 Presidency—into the National Energy Plan, which is expected to be updated in 2026.

APA

Gümüş, B. S. (2026). Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf

Chicago

Gümüş, BahadƽIR Sercan. Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gümüş |first1=BahadƽIR Sercan |title=Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion |publisher=Ember |date=12 June 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gm2026hormuz, author = {Gümüş, BahadƽIR Sercan}, title = {{Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye \$14 billion}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/06/ENG_Hormuz-crisis-could-cost-Turkiye-14-billion-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }