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The report argues that the IMF's 'climate turn' is contradictory, as its conventional lending programmes (Upper Credit Tranche) often prioritize fiscal consolidation and extractive industries, undermining the climate goals of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Through case studies in Ecuador, Egypt, the DRC, Tanzania, and Pakistan, the document demonstrates how IMF-mandated expenditure compression and reliance on fossil fuel exports create structural climate vulnerabilities. Key findings indicate that while the IMF has improved its climate analysis, this does not translate into programme design, which continues to favor private investment and cost recovery over the public investment needed for a just transition.

The policy brief emphasizes that cutting methane emissions can slow the rate of warming within current lifetimes because methane has a shorter atmospheric lifespan than carbon dioxide. It highlights the use of optical gas imaging to identify invisible leaks and argues that the fossil fuel industry wastes 200 billion cubic meters of gas annually through leaks and flaring. The document advocates for the EU Methane Regulation's application to imports to potentially cut global oil and gas methane emissions by 30 per cent. Additionally, it promotes the Fossil Fuel Regulatory Programme (FFRP), which assists low- and middle-income countries in establishing emissions rules, with Egypt, Brazil, and Bosnia and Herzegovina recently joining the initiative.

An analysis of 14 major economies outside the traditional UNFCCC contributors reveals that they provided approximately $102 billion in voluntary climate finance from 2013 to 2023. The study highlights a shift toward a multipolar finance reality, where emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) are increasingly active, though their contributions remain fragmented in official reporting. The report emphasizes the need for inclusive reporting frameworks and the scaling of triangular partnerships and de-risking mechanisms to mobilize further private capital to meet global climate goals.

The document describes the traditional centralized electricity grid model, which has been the global default since 1882, and explains how it functions through generation, transmission, and distribution. It notes that while this model was historically cost-effective, aging infrastructure and extreme weather now necessitate a shift toward distributed energy resources (DERs) to enhance system resilience.

Sudan possesses significant potential due to its strategic location, diverse mineral deposits, and arable land, yet it remains one of the world's poorest countries. Decades of authoritarian rule and internal conflict, culminating in the civil war since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, have led to the collapse of state institutions and a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Despite its history as a petro-state prior to South Sudan's 2011 secession, the economy suffers from a lack of diversification and chronic trade deficits.

The document outlines a hypothetical 'Governance scenario' for Africa, defined by reductions in state failure and corruption, and improvements in democracy and gender empowerment. It argues that such improvements would lead to a significantly larger African economy by 2043, with substantial gains in GDP per capita and a reduction of 45.5 million people living in extreme poverty. The analysis highlights the role of digital technology in implementing efficient cash grant programs as a tool for inclusion, citing Egypt's Takaful and Karama program as an example.

The report analyzes Africa's unique governance trajectory, noting that the territorial state was a late colonial imposition. It details how slavery and the Cold War hindered state formation and discusses the subsequent waves of democratisation, highlighting a significant gap between electoral and liberal democracy on the continent.

The document analyzes methane abatement in Egypt's oil and gas sector, identifying a technical abatement potential of 35% of estimated emissions using four key technologies. All analyzed measures fall below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/t CH4, with leak detection and repair (LDAR) and the elimination of unlit flaring offering the most significant opportunities. The analysis highlights that the economic viability of these measures depends heavily on the ability to monetize recovered gas, which is currently hindered by infrastructure gaps and low domestic gas prices. While Egypt lacks a dedicated methane regulatory framework, the document notes a recent agreement to develop a methane reduction roadmap and recommends prioritizing low-cost measures like LDAR and flaring monitoring in the near term.

The report evaluates methane abatement in Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Ghana, Libya, Mexico, and Nigeria, focusing on leak detection and repair (LDAR), vapor recovery units (VRUs), improved flaring practices, and replacing gas-driven pneumatic equipment. Using a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) approach, the study finds that most mitigation measures fall below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/tCH4 (20 USD/tCO2e). The economic viability of these measures is heavily dependent on the ability to monetize recovered gas, with LDAR and pneumatic equipment replacement often yielding negative marginal costs (net savings) when gas prices are sufficiently high. The report identifies significant structural barriers, including infrastructure gaps and limited local technical capacity, and recommends a combination of regulatory frameworks, targeted financial incentives, and infrastructure investment to accelerate deployment.

The document analyzes methane abatement through improved flaring practices in nine African and Latin American countries. It identifies removing unlit flaring as a priority low-cost action and notes that while most measures fall below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/tCH4, costs vary by country based on flaring volumes per site. Key barriers include regulatory focuses on flaring volumes rather than efficiency and high operation and maintenance requirements.

The document evaluates the replacement of methane-bleeding pneumatic devices in the oil and gas sector with electric or instrument air systems. It finds that while adoption is already medium-to-high in several assessed countries, the remaining abatement potential is cost-effective, with instrument air systems often falling below a low-cost threshold of 596 USD/tCH4. Key barriers to further deployment include technical constraints at aging facilities and weak economic incentives where gas has low commercial value.

African ClimateTech has grown significantly, with funding increasing from $206 million in 2016 to over $1.5 billion in 2025, now accounting for nearly 40% of all disclosed venture funding on the continent. However, this growth is highly concentrated: the top 10 companies raised as much as all other companies combined, and Energy accounts for roughly 65% of total funding. The report argues that the ecosystem is not a single market but a collection of applications maturing at different speeds. Energy Generation has reached 'Early Maturity,' while Mobility & Transport is in 'Late Frenzy.' Conversely, Water Access and Built Materials remain in 'Irruption.' A critical finding is that financial maturity, rather than technological readiness, is the primary constraint, with significant gaps in early-stage equity and working capital. The report advocates for 'tailored capital stacks' that combine grants, equity, and debt based on the specific maturity stage of each application.

The report concludes that Egypt is unlikely to meet its Vision 2030 growth targets on its current path, with projected average growth of 4.7% by 2043 compared to a 12% target. It identifies structural challenges including fiscal instability, high inflation, and a lack of job creation. To address these, the author recommends targeted interventions in health, education, agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure, specifically highlighting the completion of the El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant to add 4.8GW of capacity and the use of diaspora bonds to attract capital.

Libya is an upper-middle-income country in North Africa characterized by a vast desert interior and a densely populated Mediterranean coast. Its economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil, which provides over 90% of government revenues and export earnings, though output is volatile due to political instability. Since the 2011 collapse of the Gaddafi regime, the country has faced political fragmentation, recurring civil conflict, and a contested hybrid governance system with parallel institutions in the east and west. Geographically, Libya serves as a strategic transit point for migration toward Europe, a role that heavily impacts the country.

The document describes Egypt as a lower-middle-income transcontinental country with a population of over 113 million as of 2023. It details the nation's high population density, where 99% of the population resides on only 5.5% of the land along the Nile river. The text outlines Egypt's political history from the 1952 revolution through the Arab Spring to the current presidency of Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, noting a highly centralised administrative structure across 27 governorates. It also mentions the country's struggle with terrorism, specifically citing Islamic extremist groups like Ansar Beit Magdis in Sinai, though it suggests these groups have been defeated.

The document analyzes remittance flows in Africa, noting that in 2023, gross inflows reached approximately US$90 billion. While remittances provide critical household support and macroeconomic stability, the authors warn of a 'remittance trap' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth. The paper highlights the use of diaspora bonds in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria to fund infrastructure, and forecasts that net inflows to Africa will likely increase to US$94 billion by 2043, although their share of GDP is expected to decline.

The report analyzes Africa's progress toward a demographic dividend, noting that most of the continent is in the early stages of this transition. While 11 countries have already entered a demographic window of opportunity, most others will do so much later, with some regions not reaching the critical 1.7:1 worker-to-dependant ratio until the mid-21st century. The author argues that realizing this dividend requires simultaneous improvements in fertility rates, health, education, and employment systems.

The report analyzes the future of COMESA, projecting a population increase to 982.2 million by 2043. While the 'Current Path' shows a decline in extreme poverty from 35.4% to 18.8%, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests a more dramatic reduction to 4.1%. The analysis highlights significant economic disparities, with Egypt remaining the dominant economy and the largest carbon emitter. Sectoral scenarios indicate that free trade and 'leapfrogging' (renewable energy and digital tech) offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, though increased economic activity generally correlates with higher carbon emissions.

The document examines illicit financial flows (IFFs) in Africa, estimating annual losses between US$50 billion and US$89 billion. It identifies commercial activities, such as Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) and trade misinvoicing, as the primary drivers (65%), while criminal activity and corruption account for 35%. These outflows reduce spending on health and education and increase reliance on predatory borrowing. The paper discusses countermeasures including the African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF), the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), while highlighting challenges such as the US's role as a "secrecy jurisdiction" and limited administrative capacity in African nations.

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, is projected to significantly increase COMESA's GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and nearly eradicate extreme poverty. While driving substantial economic growth, particularly in Malawi and Ethiopia, the scenario is also expected to increase carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043.