The Governance Scenario

This research paper outlines a 'Governance scenario' for Africa, modeling the potential socio-economic impacts of improvements in stability, government capacity, and inclusion by 2043. It specifically examines how digital technology can enable direct cash transfer programs to replace inefficient subsidies and forecasts significant gains in GDP and poverty reduction across the continent.

• The Governance scenario is based on three dimensions: stability/security, capacity, and inclusion. Stability is modeled as a "reduction in the probability and magnitude of state failure/internal war" and "abrupt regime change." Capacity is improved through better government regulation, effectiveness, and reduced corruption. Inclusion is enhanced via improvements in democracy, gender empowerment, economic freedom, and the implementation of cash grant programs for the poor.
• Digital technology, including biometrics and secure identity systems, allows for the rapid and cost-effective establishment of social grant systems. These direct cash transfers are presented as superior to traditional subsidies for fuel, bread, and basic foodstuffs, which were often "prone to abuse" and dependent on foreign exchange. However, the document notes that long-term cash transfers may "lead to dependency and reduce the incentive to undertake or seek employment."
• Egypt's Takaful (Solidarity) and Karama (Dignity) cash transfer programme, launched in 2015, serves as an example of this approach. It covers 3.69 million households, representing approximately 13% of the population. Takaful provides unconditional monthly pensions to disabled and elderly citizens, while Karama provides conditional support to increase food consumption, reduce poverty, and encourage healthcare and school attendance.
• By 2043, the Governance scenario is projected to increase the size of the African economy by US$972.5 billion (an 11.5% improvement) compared to the Current Path forecast. Nigeria would see the largest absolute gain at US$208 billion (14% larger), followed by Egypt (US$130 billion or 13% larger) and South Africa (US$872 billion or 11% larger). Uganda is projected to have the highest percentage improvement at 16.4%.
• The scenario forecasts a reduction of 45.5 million extremely poor Africans (using a US$1.90 threshold) by 2043, a difference of 2 percentage points. The largest reductions in percentage points would occur in Somalia, Nigeria, and the Central African Republic. In absolute terms, Nigeria would have 14.2 million fewer people in extreme poverty, and the DR Congo would have 4.7 million fewer.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). The Governance Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. The Governance Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=The Governance Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026governance, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Governance Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }