The Governance Scenario

The document outlines a hypothetical 'Governance scenario' for Africa, defined by reductions in state failure and corruption, and improvements in democracy and gender empowerment. It argues that such improvements would lead to a significantly larger African economy by 2043, with substantial gains in GDP per capita and a reduction of 45.5 million people living in extreme poverty. The analysis highlights the role of digital technology in implementing efficient cash grant programs as a tool for inclusion, citing Egypt's Takaful and Karama program as an example.

• The Governance scenario is based on three dimensions: stability (reducing state failure and abrupt regime change), capacity (improving government regulation, effectiveness, and reducing corruption), and inclusion (improving democracy, gender empowerment, economic freedom, and the implementation of cash grant programs).
• Digital technology, specifically biometrics and identification systems, allows for the rapid and cost-effective setup of social grant systems, which are presented as a more efficient alternative to traditional subsidies for fuel and food that were prone to abuse.
• Egypt's Takaful (Solidarity) and Karama (Dignity) cash transfer programme, launched in 2015, covers approximately 12.84 million individuals (13% of the population) to mitigate the effects of 2014 economic reforms, including the removal of energy subsidies.
• By 2043, the Governance scenario would result in an African economy US$972.5 billion larger (an 11.5% improvement) than the 'Current Path' forecast, with Nigeria gaining the most in absolute terms (US$208 billion) and Uganda gaining the most by percentage (16.4%).
• The scenario predicts a reduction of 45.5 million extremely poor Africans by 2043, representing a 2 percentage point difference from the Current Path, with the largest reductions occurring in Somalia, Nigeria, and the Central African Republic.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). The Governance Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. The Governance Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=The Governance Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026governance, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Governance Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=12-governance&topic=08-governance-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }