ISS African Futures

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Africa's demographic transition, focusing on the 'demographic window of opportunity' defined by a worker-to-dependant ratio of 1.7:1. It details the varying timelines for different African regions to reach this threshold and the systemic requirements needed to convert population growth into economic dividends.

• As of 2025, the average ratio of working-age persons to dependants in Africa was 1.4:1, indicating the continent is largely in the early stages of its demographic dividend. Only 11 countries had entered a potential demographic window of opportunity: Mauritius, Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Libya, South Africa, Tunisia, Morocco, Djibouti, Botswana, Algeria, and Egypt.
• North Africa reached an average worker-to-dependant ratio of 1.7:1 in 2005, but failed to fully leverage its working-age population due to economic policies and approaches, which contributed to the Arab Spring.
• On the 'Current Path', the remaining four African regions are projected to enter their demographic window of opportunity at different times: Southern Africa in 2046, East Africa in 2048, West Africa in 2055, and Central Africa in 2062. By 2050, 33 African countries are expected to have achieved the 1.7:1 ratio.
• By 2075, 67% of the sub-Saharan African population is expected to be of working age, which is 8 percentage points higher than the expected global average of 59%. Despite this, the region's growth rate on the Current Path is likely to be modest because it will achieve a relatively low worker-to-dependant ratio.
• To successfully capitalize on the demographic transition, African countries must simultaneously reduce fertility, improve health and education, and ensure the expanding workforce possesses the necessary skills and opportunities.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=05-africas-demographic-window

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=05-africas-demographic-window.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=05-africas-demographic-window |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=05-africas-demographic-window}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }