Morocco Development Futures

The report projects Morocco's GDP to reach US$253.4 billion by 2043 on its current path, with potential to reach US$384 billion in a combined scenario. While the country benefits from a demographic window of opportunity and a shift toward high-value manufacturing, it faces significant challenges including severe water stress, heavy energy import dependence, and a large informal economy. Key growth drivers identified include the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), governance reforms, and strategic investments in education and infrastructure.

• On the 'Current Path' forecast, Morocco's GDP is projected to grow from US$133.4 billion in 2019 to US$253.4 billion by 2043, with GDP per capita increasing to US$10,718.
• A 'Combined scenario' integrating eight sectoral interventions would make Morocco Africa's 6th largest economy by 2043 with a GDP of US$384 billion, a 51% increase over the Current Path.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) scenario is identified as the single most impactful intervention for increasing GDP per capita, potentially raising it to US$11,859 by 2043 and increasing export values by 70%.
• Morocco faces critical water scarcity that threatens economic and social stability, leading to proposals for a National Water Management Agency and cost-based pricing.
• The country is heavily dependent on energy imports, projected to import 95% to 96% of its energy requirements by 2043 despite increasing renewable production.
• Morocco is transitioning from low-cost manufacturing to high-value sectors like automotive, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals, with the automotive sector seeing rapid growth via the Tanger Med port.
• The informal economy remains a significant burden; while it is projected to decline from 30% of GDP in 2019 to 18% by 2043 on the Current Path, it still limits tax revenue and productivity.
• Morocco's carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase from 18 million tons in 2019 to 30 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path.
• The report notes a democratic deficit in governance; while Morocco is more stable and has higher capacity than its African peers, it is significantly less inclusive.
• To reduce energy dependence on Algeria, Morocco is exploring the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, a US$25 billion project connecting several West African nations.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Morocco Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Morocco Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Morocco Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026morocco, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Morocco Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }