Morocco Development Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Morocco's development trajectory toward 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' forecast with eight sectoral scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It highlights Morocco's transition toward higher-value manufacturing, its strategic geographic position, and critical challenges including water scarcity, energy import dependence, and regional territorial disputes.

• On the Current Path, Morocco's population is projected to grow from 36.5 million in 2019 to 43.3 million by 2043, with the country reaching replacement-level fertility of 2.1 births per woman around 2028.
• Morocco's GDP is forecast to expand to US$253.4 billion by 2043 on the Current Path, with GDP per capita rising to US$10,718. In a Combined scenario integrating all eight sectoral interventions, the economy would reach US$384 billion, making it Africa's 6th largest economy by 2043.
• The informal sector is expected to shrink from 30% of GDP in 2019 to 18% by 2043 on the Current Path. The report notes that labor productivity in the formal sector is 3.7 times higher than in the informal sector.
• Morocco faces severe water stress that threatens economic and social balances. The 'New Development Model' published in April 2021 proposes reorganizing the water sector, introducing a pricing system to reflect real costs, and establishing a National Water Management Agency.
• The Agriculture scenario suggests that by 2043, Morocco could become a net exporter of agricultural products, with exports exceeding imports by 1.3% of demand, compared to importing 9.6% of demand on the Current Path.
• Morocco is transitioning from low-cost manufacturing to higher-value sectors including aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and automotive. The automotive sector has seen rapid growth with Renault and Stellantis as major investors, and exported vehicles now average 63% Moroccan-made components.
• The AfCFTA scenario is identified as having the greatest positive impact on GDP per capita, potentially raising it to US$11,859 by 2043, with exports increasing by 70% in value (to US$163.1 billion) compared to the Current Path.
• Morocco remains heavily dependent on energy imports, projected to import 96% of its energy requirements by 2043 on the Current Path. To mitigate this, the government is exploring the US$25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline as an alternative to the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline.
• Regarding governance, Morocco is rated as more stable and having higher government capacity than the average for lower-middle-income African countries, but it scores lower on inclusion. The 2011 Constitution shifted some authority from the King to the elected legislature, though the King retains significant power.
• Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase from 18 million tons in 2019 to 30 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, and to 38 million tons in the Combined scenario.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Morocco Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Morocco Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Morocco Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026morocco, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Morocco Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/morocco/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }