Tunisia Development Futures

The report analyzes Tunisia's development prospects up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' of modest growth with various sectoral scenarios. It finds that while Tunisia has strong foundations in education and health, it faces structural stagnation, high youth unemployment, and an energy deficit. A 'Combined scenario' integrating reforms in governance, manufacturing, agriculture, and trade could significantly boost GDP, reduce extreme poverty to 0.7%, and lower the Gini coefficient to 0.30, though a persistent energy gap remains.

• Under the 'Current Path' scenario (2023–2043), Tunisia's economy is projected to grow at a modest average annual rate of 2.8%, with GDP increasing from US$43.05 billion in 2023 to US$75.1 billion by 2043.
• Tunisia's demographic dividend is narrowing as the population ages; the working-age population share is expected to decline slightly from 66% in 2023 to 65.7% by 2043.
• The 'Combined scenario', integrating eight sectoral interventions, would raise GDP (MER) to US$100.88 billion, increase GDP per capita (PPP) to US$15,630, and reduce extreme poverty to 0.7% by 2043.
• Targeted agricultural interventions could eliminate Tunisia's crop deficit by the 2037/2038 season, transitioning the country from a deficit of 4.4 million metric tons in 2023 to a surplus of 1.81 million metric tons by 2043.
• The 'Manufacturing scenario' would increase the manufacturing value-added share of GDP to 19.2% by 2043, driving job creation and reducing extreme poverty to 1.5%.
• Deepening integration through the AfCFTA could raise GDP per capita (PPP) to US$13,500 by 2043 and narrow the trade deficit to US$1.53 billion, compared to US$3.51 billion on the Current Path.
• Tunisia faces a growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs); cardiovascular-related deaths are projected to rise from 37,080 in 2023 to 62,200 by 2043 under the Current Path.
• Despite significant growth in solar and wind energy under the Combined scenario, Tunisia will maintain a substantial energy deficit, with demand reaching 124.97 million BOE against a production of 48.75 million BOE by 2043.
• The 'Governance scenario' would increase GDP (MER) to US$77.33 billion by 2043 and reduce extreme poverty to 1.4%, the lowest among individual sectoral scenarios.
• The informal sector's contribution to GDP is projected to decline from 23.2% in 2023 to 20.3% by 2043 on the Current Path, but would drop further to 17.2% under the Combined scenario.

APA

Ngundu, M. (2026). Tunisia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous. Tunisia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |title=Tunisia Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2026tunisia, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{Tunisia Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }