Tunisia Development Futures

This report analyses Tunisia's economic and social prospects through 2043, comparing a baseline 'Current Path' with various sectoral and combined intervention scenarios. While the current path shows modest growth and slow formalisation of the economy, a combined approach across eight key sectors—including governance, manufacturing, and trade—could significantly boost GDP, reduce extreme poverty to 0.7%, and improve income equality. However, the report warns that Tunisia will face a persistent energy deficit regardless of the scenario, necessitating a more diversified energy mix beyond solar and wind.

• Under the 'Current Path' scenario (2023-2043), Tunisia's economy is projected to grow at a modest average annual rate of 2.8%, with GDP (MER) increasing from US$43.05 billion in 2023 to US$75.1 billion by 2043. GDP per capita (PPP) is expected to rise from US$9,900 in 2023 to US$12,870 by 2043, a growth rate deemed insufficient for convergence with upper-middle-income countries.
• The 'Combined' scenario, integrating all eight sectoral interventions, significantly improves economic outcomes by 2043: GDP (MER) reaches US$100.88 billion, GDP per capita (PPP) rises to US$15,630, and extreme poverty (below US$3.65 per day) is reduced to 0.7%. This scenario also sees the Gini coefficient decline to 0.3, indicating improved income equality.

APA

Ngundu, M. (2026). Tunisia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/

Chicago

Ngundu, Marvellous. Tunisia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngundu |first1=Marvellous |title=Tunisia Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngundu2026tunisia, author = {Ngundu, Marvellous}, title = {{Tunisia Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/tunisia/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }