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SEYCHELLES DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would increase Seychelles' GDP per capita to US$40,319 by 2043, a 21% increase over the Current Path. The most significant drivers of this growth are Free Trade and Manufacturing/Transfers, while the service sector is expected to see the largest sectoral increase. The scenario is projected to reduce extreme poverty by 10 percentage points and increase the overall economy size to US$3.1 billion. However, the report notes continued vulnerability to climate change and shocks due to reliance on tourism and fishing, and projects carbon emissions will rise to 241,000 tons by 2043.
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Document type: Report
Nigeria: Introduction
The report outlines Nigeria's transition from an agricultural exporter to an oil-dependent economy, detailing the impact of military rule and subsequent civilian administrations on its development. It highlights systemic issues including extreme poverty, corruption, and security threats, while noting recent reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu aimed at economic stabilisation.
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Document type: Report
South Sudan: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report evaluates South Sudan's development prospects through 2043, contrasting a 'Current Path' of gradual improvement with a 'Combined scenario' of integrated reforms. While the current path is deemed insufficient to meet the goals of the SSDP 2026–2036, the combined approach suggests that coordinated investments in agriculture, human capital, and infrastructure can accelerate poverty reduction and economic diversification. Key recommendations include scaling solar energy, implementing climate-smart agriculture, and leveraging the AfCFTA to reduce reliance on the oil sector.
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Document type: Report
REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase the Republic of the Congo's GDP per capita to US$12,917 by 2043, representing a 52.9% increase over the Current Path forecast. This integrated approach is expected to reduce the poverty rate by 16.5 percentage points, lifting 1.7 million additional people out of poverty. Economic diversification is a key outcome, with growth in manufacturing and services reducing the country's overdependence on oil extraction. While carbon emissions are projected to rise by 800,000 tons compared to the Current Path, this growth (19.5%) is disproportionately lower than the projected GDP increase (65%).
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Document type: Report
Renewable Energy Infrastructure and Mining Community Resilience
The report argues that renewable energy infrastructure for mining can serve as 'horizontal linkage' to provide energy access and economic benefits to surrounding communities. It recommends that governments integrate these investments into local content policies and plan for long-term resilience through skills development, inclusive training, and mine closure planning to ensure benefits persist beyond the life of the mine.
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Document type: Report
NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA
The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.
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Document type: Report
NIGERIA’S FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCY AND THE PATH TO ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION
Nigeria's economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for roughly 50% of the national budget and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. This dependency has led to 'Dutch Disease', severe environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, and fiscal fragility due to oil price volatility. With global oil demand projected to peak by 2030, the report argues for an urgent transition. It recommends diversifying into solar and hydro power, agro-processing, green manufacturing, and the digital economy. Key policy proposals include establishing a National Economic Diversification Master Plan, redirecting fossil fuel subsidy savings toward green investment, and joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to secure transition finance and debt resolution.
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Document type: Report
TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA
The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.
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Document type: Report
Hoja de Ruta desde América Latina y el Caribe para la transición energética justa
This roadmap, developed by civil society organizations, provides a strategic framework for Latin America and the Caribbean to transition away from fossil fuels while ensuring climate justice and economic diversification. It categorizes countries by their fossil fuel production profiles—booming, mature, or importers—and sets specific milestones for the supply, demand, and electricity sectors. The document emphasizes the need to move beyond a primary-export economic model, proposing the development of regional value chains, labor reconversion, and a legal shift toward recognizing the nature as a subject of rights. It also calls for a reform of international climate finance to avoid further indebtedness and the implementation of binding participatory governance based on human and environmental rights.
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Document type: Report
Roadmap from Latin America and the Caribbean for a Just Energy Transition
The roadmap advocates for a phased exit from fossil fuels in Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasizing a transition that integrates climate justice, economic diversification, and the recognition of nature's rights. It categorizes countries by their hydrocarbon profile—booming production, mature production, or importing with refining capacity—to tailor phase-out strategies. Key goals include achieving a net-zero electricity system by 2050, decarbonizing industrial and transport demand, and reforming financial systems to reduce debt-based climate finance. The document also calls for the criminalization of ecocide and the exclusion of climate policies from investor-state arbitration mechanisms.
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Document type: Report
Djibouti: Conclusion
The analysis concludes that Djibouti's current economic model, characterized by capital-intensive infrastructure, is insufficient to meet the goals of Vision Djibouti 2035. While the 'Current Path' predicts steady GDP growth of 6.1% annually, a 'Combined scenario' involving multi-sectoral reforms could accelerate growth to nearly 9% annually and triple GDP per capita. The document argues that the quality of growth—driven by governance, human capital, and private-sector development—is more critical than the scale of infrastructure accumulation for reducing inequality and poverty.
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Document type: Report
Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path
The report forecasts Equatorial Guinea's development through 2043, highlighting a stark contrast between high GDP per capita driven by oil and extreme poverty. It predicts rapid urbanization, a shift from oil to gas production, and a widening gap in agricultural self-sufficiency.
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Document type: Report
Ethiopia: Conclusion
The report outlines key constraints to Ethiopia's growth, including insecurity, climate change, and weak governance, and proposes targeted policy actions in governance, economic diversification, agricultural productivity, and education to ensure long-term stability and development.
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Document type: Report
Gabon: Conclusion
The document outlines a strategic framework for Gabon to leverage its upper-middle-income status through a return to constitutional rule by April 12, 2025, and a shift away from oil dependency. Key recommendations include strengthening democratic institutions, diversifying the economy into sustainable forestry, mining, and agriculture, and investing in health and education to achieve specific 2030 Sustainable Development Goal targets for child mortality.
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Document type: Report
Mozambique: INTRODUCTION
The document describes Mozambique as a low-income country with significant mineral and marine resources but persistent structural challenges. While the country saw rapid growth between 1993 and 2015 and improvements in health and electricity access, it has struggled with a narrow productive base and high poverty levels. Recent growth has slowed due to the 'hidden debt' scandal, insurgency, and climate shocks. The report highlights the risk that gas megaprojects may not lead to inclusive development without strategic governance and economic diversification.
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Document type: Research paper
Côte d'Ivoire: Conclusion
The report evaluates eight sectoral scenarios for Côte d'Ivoire, highlighting that a holistic development strategy combining governance improvements, industrialization, and regional trade integration could lead to a 92% GDP increase and a significant reduction in extreme poverty by 2043.
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Document type: Report
Malawi: Conclusion
The report analyzes Malawi's development futures, noting that while a 'Combined scenario' shows GDP per capita 35% higher than the 'Current Path' by 2043, this is insufficient to reach lower-middle-income status by 2030. It highlights persistent gaps in urbanization, industrialization, and healthcare, while emphasizing the critical impact of climate variability on rain-fed agriculture. Key recommendations include expanding Special Economic Zones, adopting climate-smart agriculture, and implementing nature-based solutions for flood prevention.
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Document type: Report
Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS
The document evaluates the impact of different policy interventions on Mozambique's future. It finds that while individual sectoral scenarios like Large Infrastructure and Agriculture boost GDP per capita, a 'Combined scenario' integrating multiple sectors offers the most significant gains, potentially reducing extreme poverty from 65.1% to 40% by 2043. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 47.6 million tons by 2043. The energy sector, dominated by gas, is expected to become the primary economic driver under the Combined scenario.
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Document type: Research paper
Mauritania: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report concludes that while Mauritania's macroeconomic indicators are trending upwards, growth remains heavily dependent on the extractive sector and is hindered by poor infrastructure, weak governance, and climate change risks. It recommends a holistic development strategy focusing on climate resilience, public finance efficiency, human capital investment, and economic diversification to leverage the country's resource endowments and youthful population.
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Document type: Report
Comoros: Conclusion
The report analyzes development scenarios for Comoros, contrasting a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' of sectoral interventions. It identifies systemic barriers including corruption, poor infrastructure, and climate change, while proposing a comprehensive policy framework focusing on governance, agricultural productivity, human capital, and the mobilization of international finance to reduce poverty and expand the formal economy by 2043.
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Document type: Research paper