NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA

The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.

• Angola is highly dependent on oil, which contributes approximately 30% of its GDP, 90% of its exports, and 60% of consolidated government revenue, leaving the economy vulnerable to international price volatility.
• Senegal's energy transition is currently shaped by the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), which pledges approximately 2.5 billion in financing contingent on the country reaching 40% renewable electricity capacity.
• Tanzania has a low direct fiscal dependence on fossil fuels, with gas revenues contributing just over 0.2% of GDP and coal profits accounting for 0.05% of GDP in 2021.
• The report proposes a 'conditional bridge' framework for natural gas, arguing it should only be used if it is not for export, has 50% of revenues ringfenced for green funds, includes sunset clauses by 2040, and follows transparent wealth management.
• Angola's renewable energy potential is vast, with an estimated hydropower potential of 18GW (of which only 5-20% is leveraged) and solar generation potential up to 55 GW.
• Tanzania's tourism sector is a major economic driver, contributing 17.2% of national GDP and 24.0% of exports, with foreign earnings growing to USD 3.4 billion in 2023.
• Senegal's agricultural sector is a primary economic foundation, contributing 15.5% of GDP in 2024 and supporting 45.6% of total households.
• The report recommends that fossil-fuel-dependent nations implement Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs) to coordinate climate finance and support worker reskilling and community diversification.
• Angola's mining sector offers significant diversification potential through diamonds, gold, and critical minerals like lithium and cobalt, with diamond revenue estimated to rise to $2.1 billion in 2025.
• Tanzania possesses significant graphite reserves, estimated at 18 million metric tonnes (5.5% of global reserves), but currently only contributes 0.3% of global production.

APA

DE SOUSA, N., KLUG, T., MBWETTE, S., MWAKIBINGA, N., NDAW, A. C., & NWEKE-EZE, C. (2026). NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/New-Visions-to-Replace-Fossil-Fuel-Revenues-in-Angola-Senegal-and-Tanzania.pdf

Chicago

DE SOUSA, NAIR, THOMAS KLUG, SHALLIROSENA MBWETTE, NIBWENE MWAKIBINGA, ADIA COUMBA NDAW, and CHIGOZIE NWEKE-EZE. NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, 2026. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/New-Visions-to-Replace-Fossil-Fuel-Revenues-in-Angola-Senegal-and-Tanzania.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=DE SOUSA |first1=NAIR |last2=KLUG |first2=THOMAS |last3=MBWETTE |first3=SHALLIROSENA |last4=MWAKIBINGA |first4=NIBWENE |last5=NDAW |first5=ADIA COUMBA |last6=NWEKE-EZE |first6=CHIGOZIE |title=NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA |publisher=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |date=June 2026 |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/New-Visions-to-Replace-Fossil-Fuel-Revenues-in-Angola-Senegal-and-Tanzania.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{desousa2026new, author = {DE SOUSA, NAIR and KLUG, THOMAS and MBWETTE, SHALLIROSENA and MWAKIBINGA, NIBWENE and NDAW, ADIA COUMBA and NWEKE-EZE, CHIGOZIE}, title = {{NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/New-Visions-to-Replace-Fossil-Fuel-Revenues-in-Angola-Senegal-and-Tanzania.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }