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CEO Note: Stealing Steel Decarbonization
The document criticizes Nippon Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs for investing in coal-fired infrastructure despite public commitments to green steel. It highlights a $350 million renovation of a blast furnace at Gary Works by Nippon Steel and the refurbishment of a 73-year-old furnace by Cleveland-Cliffs in Middletown, Ohio, despite the latter receiving a $500 million Inflation Reduction Act grant for decarbonization. The author suggests that automotive companies and international markets, particularly in Europe, should use their purchasing power to pressure steelmakers to transition away from coal.
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Document type: Statement
CEO Note: The Fires and Industrial Decarbonization
Mighty Earth is campaigning to accelerate the decarbonization of the automobile industry, targeting Hyundai Motors Corporation. The organization highlights the need for fully fossil-free steel and green hydrogen investments, while criticizing the environmental and human rights risks associated with Hyundai's global steel supply chain, including a planned facility in Louisiana and suppliers linked to abuses in Mexico.
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Document type: Statement
Designing a €100bn Industrial Decarbonisation Bank to Deliver Operating Projects
The policy brief argues that the proposed €100 billion Industrial Decarbonisation Bank (IDB) must move beyond fragmented grants to a coordinated system of carbon contracts for difference (CCfDs), project development support, and shared infrastructure funding. It highlights a significant delivery gap in existing EU programs, noting that only 16 of 208 Innovation Fund grant agreements had entered operation by June 2025. To resolve this, the author recommends technology-neutral auctions with sector-specific caps, two-way CCfD settlements referenced to EU ETS prices, and the sequencing of infrastructure delivery to align with industrial final investment decisions (FID).
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Document type: Policy brief
The Economic, Consumer Cost, and Pollution Impacts of Recent Federal Energy Policy Changes
The analysis finds that recent federal policy shifts—including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the repeal of various EPA standards—will lead to higher energy costs for households, significant GDP and job losses, and increased healthcare spending due to worsening air pollution. While a temporary boom in renewables is expected due to safe-harbor tax credit rules through 2030, the report forecasts a sharp contraction in clean energy capacity and a continued reliance on coal power after 2031.
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Document type: Report
COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY 2025
Natural Justice critiques the draft National Energy Policy (NEP) 2025 for Kenya, highlighting a contradiction between its clean energy goals and its proposal to continue oil, coal, and nuclear development. The organization argues that these fossil-fuel and nuclear pathways risk creating stranded assets and undermine climate commitments. Key recommendations include the adoption of a dedicated Just Energy Transition chapter, the mandatory use of Community Development Agreements (CDAs), and the alignment of land acquisition practices with World Bank standards. Natural Justice specifically urges the removal of nuclear energy and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the policy in favor of geothermal, solar, and wind alternatives.
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Document type: Statement
India's Aviation Opportunity: Turning Agricultural Residue and Low-Cost Solar into Competitive Sustainable Aviation Fuel with Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquids
This research paper proposes that India can develop a cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry using power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) technology, leveraging low-cost green hydrogen and agricultural residue to reduce crude oil imports and aviation emissions.
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Document type: Research paper
Namibia Development Futures
The report projects Namibia's economic and social future to 2043. While GDP per capita is expected to rise on the Current Path, the country faces persistent extreme poverty and food insecurity. Sectoral scenarios suggest that manufacturing, free trade, and agriculture offer the highest potential for economic growth, while a combined 'Agenda 2063' approach could significantly lift millions out of poverty, albeit at the cost of increased carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Methane Abatement and Carbon Lock-in
The report argues that current transition finance frameworks lack the systemic safeguards necessary to prevent carbon lock-in, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors. It proposes moving from asset-level financing to a systemic approach underpinned by Paris-aligned, subnational net-zero pathways. The document examines the gap between corporate transition plans and the requirements for credible transition finance, noting that many high-emitting oil, gas, and agrifood entities lack mature strategies. It advocates for the use of Paris-aligned taxonomies to ensure that use-of-proceeds (UoP) instruments drive genuine decarbonisation without creating 'dead-end pathways'.
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Document type: Report
CHEAP SOLAR AND CROP RESIDUE COULD MAKE INDIA A SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL LEADER
India is uniquely positioned to produce cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using a power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) pathway. By combining low-cost green hydrogen—enabled by plummeting solar and battery costs—with abundant agricultural residue, India can produce SAF that is more cost-effective and has lower carbon intensity than competing technologies like HEFA, ATJ, BtL, and PtL. Analysis indicates that a 2030 PBtL project could produce SAF at costs 40% lower than recent fossil jet fuel prices, with parity potentially reached in the 2030s. Beyond decarbonization, this approach reduces dependence on crude oil imports (currently 90% of supply) and mitigates severe air pollution caused by open-field residue burning, which is linked to 44,000 to 98,000 premature deaths annually. The brief recommends government support through first-of-a-kind demonstration projects near Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai airports, the use of trade policies to access EU and UK markets, and the implementation of incentives based on the social cost of carbon and avoided health costs from air pollution.
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Document type: Policy brief
INDIA’S AVIATION OPPORTUNITY: TURNING AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE AND LOW-COST SOLAR INTO COMPETITIVE SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL WITH POWER-AND-BIOMASS-TO-LIQUIDS
The report argues that India is uniquely positioned to lead in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production via the power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) pathway. By combining world-leading low-cost green hydrogen (driven by cheap solar power) with an abundance of surplus agricultural residue, India can produce SAF at costs significantly lower than global benchmarks. The analysis shows that PBtL is more resource-efficient and has a lower carbon intensity than other pathways like HEFA, ATJ, and BtL. The report projects that PBtL SAF could reach price parity with fossil aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in the 2030s, providing a hedge against crude oil price volatility and reducing air pollution from crop residue burning. It identifies regions around Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai airports as ideal for first-of-a-kind demonstration projects.
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Document type: Report
BEYOND FOSSIL FUELS: VISIONS FOR ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION IN KENYA
Kenya faces a significant economic burden from fossil fuel imports and subsidies despite having a nearly 90 percent renewable electricity grid. The report argues that transitioning away from fossil fuels is an economic imperative, as revenues from potential oil and coal projects are insufficient to address the national debt. It proposes a three-step pathway: immediate integration of phase-out plans, short-to-medium term divestment and investment in high-growth sectors (renewable energy, e-mobility, climate-smart agriculture, green manufacturing, and the digital economy), and long-term decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors. The document also highlights the risks of stranded assets and 'debt trap diplomacy' and recommends joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to unlock international finance and technical support.
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Document type: Report
NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA
The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.
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Document type: Report
Leveraging Renewable Energy Infrastructure for Mining Community Resilience
The report argues that while mining companies are increasingly adopting renewable energy for operational decarbonization, these investments should be leveraged through policy to benefit host communities. It provides a framework for integrating renewable energy into local content policies, emphasizing shared infrastructure, skills development, and long-term planning for post-closure transitions to ensure sustainable local development.
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Document type: Report
Hoja de Ruta desde América Latina y el Caribe para la transición energética justa
This roadmap, developed by civil society organizations, provides a strategic framework for Latin America and the Caribbean to transition away from fossil fuels while ensuring climate justice and economic diversification. It categorizes countries by their fossil fuel production profiles—booming, mature, or importers—and sets specific milestones for the supply, demand, and electricity sectors. The document emphasizes the need to move beyond a primary-export economic model, proposing the development of regional value chains, labor reconversion, and a legal shift toward recognizing the nature as a subject of rights. It also calls for a reform of international climate finance to avoid further indebtedness and the implementation of binding participatory governance based on human and environmental rights.
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Document type: Report
Roadmap from Latin America and the Caribbean for a Just Energy Transition
The roadmap advocates for a phased exit from fossil fuels in Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasizing a transition that integrates climate justice, economic diversification, and the recognition of nature's rights. It categorizes countries by their hydrocarbon profile—booming production, mature production, or importing with refining capacity—to tailor phase-out strategies. Key goals include achieving a net-zero electricity system by 2050, decarbonizing industrial and transport demand, and reforming financial systems to reduce debt-based climate finance. The document also calls for the criminalization of ecocide and the exclusion of climate policies from investor-state arbitration mechanisms.
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Document type: Report
Pedal to the Metal
The report finds that the global iron and steel industry is facing a 'lock-in' crisis due to continued investment in coal-based blast furnace capacity, particularly in India and China. While electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is increasing, green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) remains a critical bottleneck, with only 2% of operating DRI capacity using green hydrogen. India is currently the primary driver of global steelmaking development, accounting for 42% of developing capacity, much of which is coal-based. China maintains the largest operating capacity, but 94% of its blast furnace capacity lacks a retirement plan. The report warns that relining existing blast furnaces locks in emissions for 15–20 years, threatening global climate goals as the sector accounts for 11% of global CO2 emissions.
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Document type: Report
Hourly matching of scope 2 emissions can further incentivise decarbonisation
The document argues that current annual matching for scope 2 emissions often overestimates renewable electricity use and fails to incentivise the deployment of new renewables. It proposes 'hourly matching' (or 24/7 reporting), where electricity consumption is matched with renewable generation in the same hour. While 100% hourly matching can be costly, the briefing suggests that targeting a range of 80-90% can maintain emission reduction benefits while reducing costs. The document notes that hourly matching is becoming more viable, with 45 operational projects across five continents and tariffs available for 73% of global electricity demand. It advocates for a phased implementation strategy to allow for necessary data and grid infrastructure upgrades.
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Document type: Briefing
Leapfrogging
The document examines 'technological leapfrogging' in Africa, focusing on how decentralised renewable energy, mobile finance, and artificial intelligence can overcome infrastructure deficits. It presents a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario projecting significant GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while providing policy recommendations to address structural bottlenecks in skills, financing, and regulation.
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Document type: Report
Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables
As of 2022, 41.5% of Africa's population lacked electricity, with sub-Saharan Africa lagging significantly at 51.5% access. The document argues that traditional grid expansion is too slow and expensive for rural areas, proposing a 'leapfrog' strategy centered on solar-based off-grid and mini-grid solutions. World Bank estimates suggest that providing electricity to 380 million people by 2030 would require over 160,000 mini-grids costing approximately US$ 91 billion. Despite possessing 60% of the world's best solar resources, Africa faces severe financing shortfalls, with clean energy finance growing by only 2.5% in sub-Saharan Africa between 2021 and 2022, compared to over 100% in Latin America. Barriers to deployment include high public debt, regulatory bottlenecks, and shifting geopolitical priorities, such as the end of the US Power Africa initiative.
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Document type: Research paper
Meeting Africa’s Infrastructure Investment Need
Africa faces a significant infrastructure deficit, with an annual funding shortfall of US$68–108 billion. The report examines the role of the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), the potential of domestic capital—estimated at over US$1.1 trillion—and the challenges of public-private partnerships. It highlights that up to 90% of projects fail before financial close due to poor early-stage preparation, arguing for better project bankability and risk-sharing instruments to attract private investment.
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Document type: Report