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U.S. clean energy investments: 2026 Quarter 1 analysis
In Q1 2026, U.S. clean energy investments were heavily influenced by executive branch implementation and policy certainty. While electric power investments increased—driven by a massive nuclear project in Texas—manufacturing investments declined for the sixth consecutive quarter. Federal support strongly favored critical minerals and battery storage, while sectors like hydrogen, solar, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) faced mixed outcomes due to fragile policy support and tightened tax credit eligibility windows.
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Document type: Report
Strengthening the EU Emissions Trading System
The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) recommends a cautious, safeguard-driven integration of permanent carbon removals (specifically DACCS and BioCCS) into the EU ETS to avoid deterring direct emissions reductions. The briefing argues for expanding the ETS scope to include extra-EEA flights, vessels above 400 gross tonnage, and municipal waste incineration and landfills. It specifically highlights the need to address non-CO2 aviation impacts, such as contrails, through financial incentives and robust monitoring. To support the transition, CATF suggests earmarking aviation ETS revenues for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and maintaining SAF allowances beyond 2030.
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Document type: Briefing
Maximizing the Climate Co-Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Targeted Allocation
The report proposes optimizing the limited supply of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by targeting its use at airports with the highest contrail and particulate matter (PM) impacts. Analysis of 16.6 million flights in 2024 reveals that 2% of flights generate 80% of contrail-related warming. In the U.S., JFK, LAX, and O'Hare are identified as primary targets, while Heathrow, Istanbul Airport, and Paris CDG are the top candidates in Europe. The study finds that a 50% SAF blend can reduce LTO particulate emissions by 26-28% and contrail-related warming by 30-40%. While airport-wide targeting is simplest, time-based and flight-based strategies are more fuel-efficient. Implementation faces logistical hurdles, particularly at airports using hydrant fuel systems, but the report suggests these can be overcome through policy incentives and infrastructure investment.
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Document type: Research paper
The EU ETS review must turn aviation ambition into deployment
The Clean Air Task Force asserts that the EU ETS review is critical for bridging the cost gap between conventional jet fuel and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). While ReFuelEU Aviation established demand, the author notes that no large-scale e-SAF project in the EU had reached a final investment decision as of mid-2026. The document recommends extending the SAF allowance mechanism beyond 2030, mandating the reinvestment of ETS aviation revenues into sector decarbonisation, and carefully integrating high-quality carbon removals into the long-term strategy.
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Document type: Statement
India's Aviation Opportunity: Turning Agricultural Residue and Low-Cost Solar into Competitive Sustainable Aviation Fuel with Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquids
This research paper proposes that India can develop a cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry using power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) technology, leveraging low-cost green hydrogen and agricultural residue to reduce crude oil imports and aviation emissions.
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Document type: Research paper
The Future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the Midwestern United States: Finding Alternatives to Crop-Based Biofuels
The research evaluates the feasibility and economic benefits of transitioning from food-crop biofuels to residue-based SAFs and e-fuels in the Midwestern United States. It finds that producing three billion gallons of SAF annually from corn stover could contribute between $9 billion and $32 billion to regional GDP and support up to 214,000 jobs, provided there is sufficient policy support.
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Document type: Research paper
CHEAP SOLAR AND CROP RESIDUE COULD MAKE INDIA A SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL LEADER
India is uniquely positioned to produce cost-competitive sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using a power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) pathway. By combining low-cost green hydrogen—enabled by plummeting solar and battery costs—with abundant agricultural residue, India can produce SAF that is more cost-effective and has lower carbon intensity than competing technologies like HEFA, ATJ, BtL, and PtL. Analysis indicates that a 2030 PBtL project could produce SAF at costs 40% lower than recent fossil jet fuel prices, with parity potentially reached in the 2030s. Beyond decarbonization, this approach reduces dependence on crude oil imports (currently 90% of supply) and mitigates severe air pollution caused by open-field residue burning, which is linked to 44,000 to 98,000 premature deaths annually. The brief recommends government support through first-of-a-kind demonstration projects near Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai airports, the use of trade policies to access EU and UK markets, and the implementation of incentives based on the social cost of carbon and avoided health costs from air pollution.
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Document type: Policy brief
INDIA’S AVIATION OPPORTUNITY: TURNING AGRICULTURAL RESIDUE AND LOW-COST SOLAR INTO COMPETITIVE SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL WITH POWER-AND-BIOMASS-TO-LIQUIDS
The report argues that India is uniquely positioned to lead in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production via the power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) pathway. By combining world-leading low-cost green hydrogen (driven by cheap solar power) with an abundance of surplus agricultural residue, India can produce SAF at costs significantly lower than global benchmarks. The analysis shows that PBtL is more resource-efficient and has a lower carbon intensity than other pathways like HEFA, ATJ, and BtL. The report projects that PBtL SAF could reach price parity with fossil aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in the 2030s, providing a hedge against crude oil price volatility and reducing air pollution from crop residue burning. It identifies regions around Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai airports as ideal for first-of-a-kind demonstration projects.
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Document type: Report
Not Just Voluntary Credits: Three CDR Demand Trends to Support and Scale
The document argues that relying solely on voluntary corporate credits is insufficient for scaling CDR and proposes three diversified demand pathways: credit purchasing through government procurement and compliance markets, demand for differentiated low-carbon products enabled by carbon accounting and 'Buy Clean' policies, and 'flipping the script' by funding services where CDR is a co-product, such as wildfire prevention or waste management.
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Document type: Policy brief
Harnessing Green Demand to Drive Sustainable Chemicals Production
The chemicals sector contributes approximately 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with production projected to grow up to 43% by 2050. While low-emission technologies exist, their scale-up is hindered by high capital intensity, long investment horizons, and complex value chains where intermediaries have little incentive to pay premiums for green inputs. To address this, the Center for Green Market Activation (GMA) and RMI are promoting demand aggregation and 'book and claim' systems using Environmental Attribute Certificates (EACs). These mechanisms allow downstream brands to pay for emissions reductions directly to upstream producers, bypassing value chain intermediaries and geographic constraints. GMA and RMI have launched a Low-Emissions Chemicals Initiative focusing on low-emissions ethylene to provide the demand certainty required for capital-intensive projects.
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Document type: Briefing
EU ETS scope expansion for aviation
The report analyzes the potential demand response to an EU ETS scope expansion for extra-EEA flights. It finds that demand effects are generally small at current price levels, particularly for high-emitting segments such as long-haul flights, business travel, and private aviation, which exhibit low price elasticity. The study highlights that cost pass-through rates are higher in competitive markets and at uncongested airports. Non-price factors, including value of time, airline loyalty, and airport attractiveness, are identified as primary drivers of the observed differences in price sensitivity across market segments.
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Document type: Report
ANALYSIS OF TOTALENERGIES’ CLIMATE STRATEGY
The report finds that TotalEnergies' investment strategy heavily favors fossil fuels, with 4.8 dollars invested in oil and gas for every dollar spent on integrated power in 2025. The company's 2030 production targets are projected to be at least 59% higher than levels required for NZE alignment. While diversifying into renewables, the report notes this is largely through acquisitions and remains marginal, with oil and gas expected to represent 83% of the energy mix by 2030. Additionally, the company is expanding its LNG capacity and gas power production, while relying on CCUS and offsets to meet emissions targets it has recently modified, including a statement in 2026 that it could no longer commit to a 'net zero' objective.
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Document type: Report
Energy Shocks Are Back. This Time, the Response Can Be Different.
The briefing examines the impact of energy supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran war, noting that the current crisis is larger than the 1970s oil embargo. It argues that while governments are using short-term fixes like strategic reserves and subsidies, the long-term solution lies in electrification, demand-side efficiency, and the scaling of 'green molecules' like hydrogen and ammonia. The text highlights specific vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia and the US, and suggests that mitigating methane leakage and flaring could recover energy volumes equivalent to approximately half of worldwide LNG trade.
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Document type: Briefing
Toward a New Carbon Economy
The briefing proposes a 'new carbon economy' to manage carbon as a valuable resource rather than just a waste product. It identifies five core activities—point source capture, carbon dioxide removal, utilization, storage, and transportation—and argues that a lack of coordination between these sectors is currently delaying infrastructure investment and risking the misallocation of resources. The author asserts that a broad coalition of experts and civil society is needed to define a strategic vision for this system to ensure it supports decarbonization without extending the life of fossil fuel power plants.
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Document type: Briefing
U.S. clean energy investments: 2025 Quarter 4 analysis
In Q4 2025, U.S. clean energy investments were characterized by significant uncertainty driven by a record 43-day government shutdown, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and Department of Energy (DOE) funding cuts. While utility-scale solar and storage remained strong, with $18 billion in actual investments, other sectors like wind, hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) faced substantial project cancellations. Nuclear energy showed signs of growth through large-scale partnerships and DOE loans, while the manufacturing sector saw $8.4 billion in EV supply chain cancellations, partly due to shifting federal incentives and corporate pivots toward gas and hybrid vehicles.
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Document type: Briefing
Limousines of the sky: EU must make private jet travellers pay for their pollution
Carbon Market Watch asserts that private jet use in Europe is under-regulated despite being the most polluting form of travel. The organization proposes multiplying the carbon price by four for private jets and expanding the scope of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to cover the 67% of private jet emissions currently exempt. Such measures could raise between €304 million and €2.2 billion annually by 2030, depending on the scope of coverage and the inclusion of non-CO2 effects. The document also advocates for aviation fuel taxation and the prioritization of low-cost solutions, such as contrail avoidance, over subsidies for unsustainable bio-kerosene.
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Document type: Statement
Trade and Climate Sustainability 2026 Series
The report examines how the green transition is reshaping trade, investment, and geopolitics for Africa. It analyzes the impact of the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM), the decarbonisation of maritime and aviation sectors, and the potential for Africa to move from raw mineral extraction to EV battery production. It warns that without strategic policy intervention, clean energy exports and critical mineral demand may reproduce extractive economic patterns, while advocating for a unified continental approach to negotiate fairer terms in international climate-trade frameworks.
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Document type: Report
Finance, Skills, Trust: Unlocking South Africa’s Just Energy Future
The document identifies four primary constraints to South Africa's just transition: a significant finance gap, delivery frictions in project cycles, fragmented skills and employment pathways, and a lack of accountability and legitimacy. It argues that success depends on moving from high-level pledges to 'delivery-grade' finance and coordinated, place-based implementation, particularly in coal-affected regions like Mpumalanga.
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Document type: Policy brief
Near-term actions for Indian companies to scale clean solutions
The document outlines a framework for Indian businesses to transition to clean energy solutions over a two-to-five-year horizon. It emphasizes three core principles: prioritizing the reduction of energy demand, acting immediately while improving performance over time, and continuously improving data quality. The guide provides detailed action plans for measuring annual energy consumption through audits and benchmarking, optimizing logistics via supply chain redesign and modal shifts, and transitioning vehicle fleets to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) through baseline assessments and pilot projects. It also details various central and state-level government incentives available to support these transitions.
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Document type: Guide
U.S. clean energy investments: 2025 Quarter 3 analysis
The report details a shift in U.S. federal priorities that has narrowed incentives for clean energy, primarily through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and executive agency actions. It highlights significant tax credit repeals or restrictions, DOE funding cancellations, and EPA reporting rollbacks that have created deep uncertainty across the electric power, manufacturing, and energy and industry sectors. While some investments accelerated to meet new deadlines, others—particularly in hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, and carbon management—have declined or relocated abroad.
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Document type: Report