Not Just Voluntary Credits: Three CDR Demand Trends to Support and Scale

This policy brief by RMI identifies three emerging trends to scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) demand beyond voluntary corporate credits: credit purchasing through government and private sector mechanisms, demand for differentiated low-carbon products, and 'flipping the script' by funding services where CDR is a co-product or by-product.

• The CDR sector is currently heavily reliant on voluntary corporate credits, but this demand is uneven and potentially declining, as evidenced by Microsoft's announcement to slow its purchases. Over 80% of planned high-durability CDR capacity is at risk of failure without additional financial commitments and offtake contracts.
• Advance Market Commitments (AMCs) are aggregating demand for durable CDR. Frontier Climate, a $1 billion commitment from companies including Google, Meta, and Stripe, has contracted over 1.8 million tons of removals durable for 1,000+ years as of April 2026. Symbiosis aims to contract up to 20 million tons of nature-based removals by 2030.
• Governments are beginning to procure CDR credits directly. Canada committed at least CAD $10 million for CDR by 2030 via its Low-carbon Fuel Procurement Program (LCFPP) and launched a Request for Standing Offer in March 2026. In the US, California SB 643 sought $50 million for CDR projects by 2035 but was vetoed due to budget constraints.
• Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) provide a pathway for CDR integration. While the EU ETS does not currently include CDR, the European Commission is considering it. Japan's Green Transformation ETS (GX-ETS) already allows up to 5% of emissions to be covered by CDR credits, and the UK has committed to integrating specific CDR credit types.
• Demand for differentiated, lower-emissions products can be driven by 'Buy Clean' policies, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs), and product standards. For example, the UK's SAF Mandate requires an increasing percentage of power-to-liquid fuels (from 0.2% in 2028 to 3.5% in 2040) which can utilize captured atmospheric CO2.
• The 'flip the script' model generates CDR as a co-product of other valuable services. Examples include using forest thinning waste for biochar in California (Placer County and Inyo National Forest), using municipal biosolid waste for underground slurry disposal in Kansas (Vaulted Deep's Great Plains Facility), and using carbonation to manage mine tailings in Canada.
• In Brazil, enhanced weathering for agriculture presents a scaling opportunity due to the prevalence of acidic soils and Law No. 12.890, which categorizes soil remineralizers as agricultural inputs. This could be scaled through 'pay-for-practice' programs where the government pays farmers for pH management.

APA

Weaver, E., Khandelwal, K., Vinson, V., & Kiser, B. (2026). Not Just Voluntary Credits: Three CDR Demand Trends to Support and Scale. RMI. https://rmi.org/resources/not-just-voluntary-credits-three-cdr-demand-trends-to-support-and-scale/

Chicago

Weaver, Eli, Kunal Khandelwal, Vera Vinson, and Bella Kiser. Not Just Voluntary Credits: Three CDR Demand Trends to Support and Scale. RMI, 2026. https://rmi.org/resources/not-just-voluntary-credits-three-cdr-demand-trends-to-support-and-scale/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Weaver |first1=Eli |last2=Khandelwal |first2=Kunal |last3=Vinson |first3=Vera |last4=Kiser |first4=Bella |title=Not Just Voluntary Credits: Three CDR Demand Trends to Support and Scale |publisher=RMI |date=14 May 2026 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/not-just-voluntary-credits-three-cdr-demand-trends-to-support-and-scale/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{weaver2026not, author = {Weaver, Eli and Khandelwal, Kunal and Vinson, Vera and Kiser, Bella}, title = {{Not Just Voluntary Credits: Three CDR Demand Trends to Support and Scale}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/not-just-voluntary-credits-three-cdr-demand-trends-to-support-and-scale/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }