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Carbon Market Watch asserts that free allowances in the EU ETS have failed to drive decarbonisation, instead allowing heavy industry to generate profits while avoiding pollution costs. The organization criticizes the European Commission's revision proposal for extending free allocations and calls for a full phase-out by 2034 for CBAM sectors and a plan for all other sectors, insisting that any remaining subsidies be tied to proven investments in zero-carbon transformation and social safeguards.

The report analyzes four technology pathways for decarbonizing California's cement industry—CCS only, electrification with CCS, blended cement (LC3) with CCS, and blended cement with alternative fuels and CCS. It finds that while significant reductions are possible, reaching net-zero will require higher capture rates, grid decarbonization, and additional carbon removal. To bridge cost and regulatory gaps, the authors recommend establishing a State Revolving Loan Fund, implementing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and creating statewide Best Available Control Technology (BACT) guidelines for CCS projects.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) recommends a cautious, safeguard-driven integration of permanent carbon removals (specifically DACCS and BioCCS) into the EU ETS to avoid deterring direct emissions reductions. The briefing argues for expanding the ETS scope to include extra-EEA flights, vessels above 400 gross tonnage, and municipal waste incineration and landfills. It specifically highlights the need to address non-CO2 aviation impacts, such as contrails, through financial incentives and robust monitoring. To support the transition, CATF suggests earmarking aviation ETS revenues for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and maintaining SAF allowances beyond 2030.

The report critiques the EU's CRCF carbon farming methodologies, highlighting systemic flaws in quantification, additionality, and sustainability safeguards. It argues that the current framework allows for potential overcrediting and greenwashing, particularly if units are used for offsetting. The author recommends shifting from a credit-based system to an activity-based performance model to ensure environmental integrity.

The report analyzes three carbon price scenarios for Canada's industrial sector: a flat price (CAD 130/t), a low price (rising to CAD 230/t), and a high price (rising to CAD 380/t by 2040). It finds that a high-price trajectory significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions and stimulates clean investment with minimal impact on GDP growth. The authors recommend adopting a strong national price trajectory, differentiating performance standard tightening rates based on sectoral competitiveness risks—specifically tightening faster for oil and gas—and implementing complementary policies such as a green industrial strategy and the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) transitioned from a reporting-only phase to a definitive period on January 1, 2026, introducing financial liabilities for importers of iron, steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen. Exporters must now provide verified actual emissions data to avoid high default values, which include annual markups of +10% in 2026, +20% in 2027, and +30% from 2028 onward. Financial liability is calculated based on embedded emissions, adjusted by a Free Allocation Adjustment (FAA) that phases out by 2034, and monetized through CBAM certificates linked to EU ETS prices. The guide emphasizes that verified actual emissions and documentation of carbon prices paid in the country of origin are critical for maintaining competitiveness and reducing costs.

The study finds that the draft CRCF methodology for carbon farming is not fit for purpose, setting a lower integrity standard than the PACM and risking the issuance of units not backed by actual emission reductions. Key failures include insufficient additionality and permanence requirements, the omission of leakage and indirect land-use change (ILUC) risks, and a lack of systematic safeguards. The authors recommend revising the methodology to align with international benchmarks and prohibiting the use of CRCF carbon farming units for offsetting purposes.

The authors argue that the Paris Climate Agreement's 'name and shame' approach fails because it ignores the science of cooperative agreements on common resources. They propose a climate club where members commit to net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, using a combination of high import tariffs and export taxes on non-members, a uniform tariff surcharge (up to 10%) on non-member imports, and penalties for members who miss intermediate goals. To ensure WTO compatibility, the proposal relies on GATT Articles XX(b) and XX(g), allowing any regulatory approach that achieves emissions reductions. The plan includes a Multilateral Fund for developing countries and suggests similar structures for methane and nitrous oxide, drawing inspiration from the Montreal Protocol.

The report analyzes the potential demand response to an EU ETS scope expansion for extra-EEA flights. It finds that demand effects are generally small at current price levels, particularly for high-emitting segments such as long-haul flights, business travel, and private aviation, which exhibit low price elasticity. The study highlights that cost pass-through rates are higher in competitive markets and at uncongested airports. Non-price factors, including value of time, airline loyalty, and airport attractiveness, are identified as primary drivers of the observed differences in price sensitivity across market segments.

The report argues that the proposed Turkish ETS is fundamentally weak due to its reliance on an intensity-based cap, broad unconditional free allocation, and the use of offsets. These design choices are expected to prevent the system from generating a meaningful carbon price signal, thereby failing to drive emissions reductions aligned with the Paris Agreement and leaving Turkish exporters exposed to significant CBAM fees. The authors recommend transitioning to an absolute declining cap, phasing out offsets, and shifting toward auctioning to retain climate revenues domestically.

The report argues that Africa is disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and requires substantial support from wealthier nations to transition to renewables. It suggests a gradual phasing out of fossil fuels—starting with coal, then oil, and gas beyond 2050—contrasting with more rapid shifts proposed by other bodies. Key barriers identified include the failure of initiatives like JET-Ps to raise sufficient funds, the unfunded status of the loss and damage fund, and geopolitical tensions between the US, China, and the EU. The authors advocate for a differentiated global carbon tax, the operationalization of the Global Loss and Damage Fund, and the enhancement of Africa's role as a global carbon sink to balance economic growth with climate resilience.

The Canadian Climate Institute asserts that industrial carbon pricing has almost no impact on average Canadian household spending, with a projected effect on consumption of nearly 0% in 2025 and only a 0.1 percentage point reduction by 2030. The document attributes this to the fact that these systems target large emitters—such as oil sands, steel mills, and cement plants—rather than individuals, and that many of the affected products are exported to global markets. For example, nearly 80% of oil sands production is exported, and the cost added to a refrigerator by carbon pricing on steel mills is estimated at only $0.12. Additionally, the report finds that the policy has almost no effect on food prices or the agricultural sector, with a predicted cumulative GDP effect on agriculture of 0.08% by 2030. For businesses, costs are limited because they only pay for emissions exceeding set limits; for oil sands producers, current costs average 9 cents per barrel, and are projected to remain around 50 cents per barrel by 2050 (inflation-adjusted) under the Canada-Alberta memorandum of understanding.

The Canadian Climate Institute asserts that industrial carbon pricing is designed to incentivize emission reductions while minimizing costs to industry. For oil sands producers, current average costs are 9 cents per barrel, and projected costs under a strengthened policy (targeting $130 per tonne by 2030) would rise to approximately 50 cents per barrel. Analysis of 17 years of provincial trade data across 10 provinces and 19 sectors found no statistically significant evidence that carbon pricing has contracted exports.

The research paper examines the transition of trade-related climate measures from abstract policy debates to concrete implementation between 2025 and early 2026. It highlights the role of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Deforestation Regulation as primary drivers of international tension. The authors analyze discussions within the WTO's Committee on Trade and Environment (CTE) and the Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions (TESSD), as well as new initiatives established at COP 30 in Brazil, including the 'Mutirão' technical dialogues and the Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFCCT). The paper argues that MC14 serves as a critical moment for consolidating these debates around transparency, interoperability, and development support.

The document outlines the transition of the EU CBAM from a reporting-only phase to a mandatory financial compliance phase starting January 1, 2026. It details the obligations for 'Authorised CBAM Declarants', the calculation of embedded emissions using either actual verified data or punitive default values, and the requirement to purchase CBAM certificates linked to EU ETS prices. The guide emphasizes the competitive advantage for low-carbon producers and provides a three-stage implementation checklist for exporters to minimize costs and ensure market access to the EU.

Carbon Market Watch claims the European Commission is routinely ignoring or bypassing required impact assessments and public consultations for major climate policies. The author asserts that this shift toward 'vibe-based' policymaking, driven by deregulation and industry lobbying, undermines transparency and risks significant economic and environmental damage, citing specific examples such as the 2040 climate target and the EU ETS2 Market Stability Reserve.

The Canadian Climate Institute argues that current federal diagnostic tests for industrial carbon pricing systems primarily measure market liquidity rather than regulatory rigor, leading to 'false positives' where systems appear compliant but fail to provide sufficient investment signals. Based on modeling of 57 scenarios for Alberta's TIER system, the Institute recommends anchoring equivalence to an Effective Marginal Credit Price (EMCP) of $130 per tonne by 2030. It identifies benchmark tightening as the primary driver of rigor, while noting that direct investment tax credits systematically dilute the price signal. The Institute calls for transparent, ongoing performance monitoring and the inclusion of non-negotiable design elements, such as evolving price floors and ceilings, to ensure provincial systems meet national climate goals.

The document examines the convergence of trade and climate policies, highlighting how unilateral trade measures and green industrial policies in advanced economies create systemic barriers for developing nations. It identifies critical gaps in policy, governance, and knowledge, and proposes a framework for multilateral dialogues under the UNFCCC to ensure a just transition.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) argues that the CFTC's withdrawal of guidance for voluntary carbon credit derivative contracts risks eroding market integrity and undermining climate progress. CATF highlights systemic quality issues in voluntary carbon markets, particularly in forest carbon credits, and contends that the withdrawal process lacked transparency and legal justification. The organization recommends that the CFTC not only reinstate the guidance but move toward issuing specific regulations for these markets.

Carbon Market Watch argues that Verra's VM0052 methodology for coal transition credits is flawed and risks issuing low-quality credits that do not represent real emission reductions. The briefing identifies critical failures in additionality testing, baseline setting, leakage prevention, and just transition safeguards, specifically highlighting risks in the Philippines' energy context. It recommends a total suspension of the methodology until significant revisions are made to prevent overissuance and carbon leakage.