Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future

This report by the Institute for Security Studies outlines the challenges Africa faces in transitioning to a low-carbon future, emphasizing that the region will suffer disproportionately from climate change despite its low contribution to the cause. It argues for a gradual energy transition, the necessity of climate finance, and the implementation of a fair global carbon tax to support sustainable development and resilience.

• Africa is projected to suffer more than any other region from climate change impacts due to its limited adaptation capacity, despite contributing very little to the problem.
• The report suggests a gradual phasing out of fossil fuels in Africa, starting with coal, followed by oil, and eventually gas after 2050, contrasting with the more rapid shifts proposed by entities like UNEP.
• Climate finance is identified as the critical enabler for Africa's energy transition, yet existing initiatives have fallen short; the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JET-Ps) in South Africa and Indonesia have raised less than 10% of required funds, and the COP27 loss and damage fund remains unfunded.
• Geopolitical tensions between the US, China, and the EU hinder climate cooperation. Specifically, the election of Donald Trump as the 47th US President is cited as a reason for the US stepping away from climate action, while China's dominance in clean technology supply chains creates a tension between the need for cooperation and the desire to reduce dependencies.
• The EU's Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM), starting in 2026, aims to align domestic and imported carbon-intensive goods but may unfairly penalize industries in low- and middle-income countries that lack the resources to decarbonize.
• To achieve a sustainable future, the report recommends a multifaceted strategy for Africa: leveraging its role as a global carbon sink, implementing a differentiated global carbon tax based on income, scaling up renewable energy (including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and SMNR), and integrating adaptation measures across healthcare, agriculture, and urban planning.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026climate, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }