Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future

The report argues that Africa is disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and requires substantial support from wealthier nations to transition to renewables. It suggests a gradual phasing out of fossil fuels—starting with coal, then oil, and gas beyond 2050—contrasting with more rapid shifts proposed by other bodies. Key barriers identified include the failure of initiatives like JET-Ps to raise sufficient funds, the unfunded status of the loss and damage fund, and geopolitical tensions between the US, China, and the EU. The authors advocate for a differentiated global carbon tax, the operationalization of the Global Loss and Damage Fund, and the enhancement of Africa's role as a global carbon sink to balance economic growth with climate resilience.

• Africa's transition away from fossil fuels is expected to be more gradual than the rapid shifts proposed by UNEP, with a sequence of phasing out coal first, then reducing oil, and eventually gas after 2050.
• International climate finance initiatives have largely failed to meet their targets; the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JET-Ps) in South Africa and Indonesia have raised less than 10% of required funds, and the COP27 loss and damage fund remains unfunded.
• Geopolitical tensions between the US, China, and the EU hinder climate cooperation, with the election of Donald Trump as the 47th US President signaling a US withdrawal from climate action.
• The EU's Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM), starting in 2026, may increase global inequalities by harming industries in low- and middle-income countries that lack the resources to decarbonize.
• To manage climate crises, UNCTAD suggests African countries need expanded access to foreign currencies via central bank swaps and the implementation of climate-resilient debt clauses to allow a halt in debt repayments.
• Effective climate strategy for Africa must integrate adaptation across sectors—including healthcare, agriculture, and urban planning—and leverage the continent's potential as a global carbon sink through reforestation and the Great Green Wall.

APA

le Roux, A., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion

Chicago

le Roux, Alize, and Jakkie Cilliers. Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=le Roux |first1=Alize |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leroux2026climate, author = {le Roux, Alize and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Climate Conclusion: Challenges to Achieving a Low-Carbon Future}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=14-climate-change&topic=09-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }