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The document criticizes Nippon Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs for investing in coal-fired infrastructure despite public commitments to green steel. It highlights a $350 million renovation of a blast furnace at Gary Works by Nippon Steel and the refurbishment of a 73-year-old furnace by Cleveland-Cliffs in Middletown, Ohio, despite the latter receiving a $500 million Inflation Reduction Act grant for decarbonization. The author suggests that automotive companies and international markets, particularly in Europe, should use their purchasing power to pressure steelmakers to transition away from coal.

The document argues that while the second Trump administration has targeted wind, solar, and electric vehicles, bipartisan support for clean firm energy—including nuclear, geothermal, and carbon capture—remains durable through existing statutory foundations and congressional appropriations.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) warns that Louisiana's current regulatory trajectory could lead to up to $26 billion in electricity system costs and $3 billion in public health damages between 2026 and 2041 due to data center growth. The report highlights a systemic overreliance on fossil gas, which is projected to peak in 2038, and criticizes the Louisiana Public Service Commission (LPSC) for a lack of transparency and inadequate ratepayer protections, specifically citing the 'Lightning Amendment' and the Entergy/Meta project as examples of risky policy. UCS recommends reforming the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, implementing standardized tariffs for data centers, and expanding wind, solar, and grid connectivity to reduce costs and emissions.

In 2025, the U.S. generated a record 853,210 GWh from solar and wind, accounting for 19% of total electricity generation. This represents a more than threefold increase since 2016, with solar generation growing more than seven-fold and wind doubling. Despite this growth, the document notes that the U.S. faces new challenges, including the repeal of clean energy tax credits via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 and the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2026. These policy shifts, combined with rising electricity demand from data centers, are projected to increase heat-trapping pollution and raise average annual household energy costs by over $280 by 2035.

The document details the use of a modified Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to project US electricity demand from data centers and the resulting effects on the energy transition. It outlines five demand scenarios, including 'high data center demand growth', and evaluates them against various policy frameworks such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The analysis incorporates specific state-level emissions caps for Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and adjusts technology costs for nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reflect conservative estimates. It also details the calculation of health damages from criteria pollutants and the social cost of greenhouse gas emissions.

The Union of Concerned Scientists analysis finds that Michigan's electricity demand could nearly double by 2050, driven significantly by AI-related data centers. While current policies may lead to increased fossil gas capacity and emissions due to an energy export loophole, a proposed CO2 reduction policy could enable Michigan to meet 95% of its 2050 demand with renewables and low-carbon sources, avoiding $3.5 billion in local health costs and $408 billion in global climate damages.

The report details a shift in U.S. federal priorities that has narrowed incentives for clean energy, primarily through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and executive agency actions. It highlights significant tax credit repeals or restrictions, DOE funding cancellations, and EPA reporting rollbacks that have created deep uncertainty across the electric power, manufacturing, and energy and industry sectors. While some investments accelerated to meet new deadlines, others—particularly in hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, and carbon management—have declined or relocated abroad.

The United States faces significant vulnerabilities in its critical mineral supply chain, relying on imports for 100% of 12 critical minerals and 50% or more for another 28 as of 2024. While the U.S. possesses deposits of many essential minerals, domestic production is hindered by permitting processes that average 16 years and the higher cost of domestic operations compared to overseas production. The document highlights the environmental risks of open-pit mining—including greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater contamination—and the specific impact on Native American reservations, where a high percentage of nickel, lithium, and cobalt resources are located. It explores secondary recovery from waste like coal ash and desalination brine as a sustainable alternative, though these methods currently face economic and technical barriers. Recent U.S. policy efforts include the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and 2025 executive orders aimed at expediting permitting and exploring deep-sea mining.

The document analyzes how federal clean energy incentives have driven over $321 billion in investments across the U.S. between Q2 2022 and Q1 2025, highlighting that these investments are heavily concentrated in Southern and Western states and Republican-held congressional districts. It argues that rolling back these incentives would disproportionately harm these regions and jeopardize significant outstanding investments in states like Louisiana and North Dakota, as well as major projects in emerging hubs like Southern Arizona and the Southeast.

The document examines how wide-ranging tariffs, including those imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), increase the cost of essential materials like steel, aluminum, and copper, thereby raising prices for energy infrastructure and slowing the deployment of clean energy technologies. It highlights that while the administration seeks 'energy dominance,' these trade policies create investment uncertainty and risk ceding leadership in next-generation technologies—such as advanced nuclear, geothermal, and batteries—to competitors like China. The authors recommend replacing blunt tariffs with targeted, time-bound measures paired with robust industrial policy and strategic alliances to ensure long-term competitiveness.

The report highlights a critical gap in US trade data that obscures the extent of firm-level dependence on Chinese suppliers for battery minerals and components. While China dominates global production—controlling 70% of battery pack assembly and 91% of anode production—current US tracking relies on outdated Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes and allows firms to hide import partners. The authors recommend updating trade codes, enhancing intergovernmental data sharing, expanding reporting requirements for electric vehicle tax credits, and leading international efforts for trade code standardization to enable more nuanced policymaking and supply chain diversification.

The author contends that the overturning of EPA waivers for California's car and truck standards is a temporary setback that should motivate states to accelerate the transition to zero-emissions vehicles. The document proposes a strategy involving legal challenges by California, the development of new rules like Advanced Clean Cars III, the adoption of standards by Section 177 states, and the implementation of Indirect Source Rules and Dirty Cargo Fees to address pollution hotspots.

The author contends that the U.S. administration's decision to exit the Paris Climate Agreement and end international climate finance creates significant risks for the United States. These include the loss of diplomatic soft power, the forfeiture of economic opportunities in a clean energy market projected to exceed $2 trillion by 2035, and the creation of a power vacuum likely to be filled by China or other actors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The text asserts that maintaining a leadership role is essential for U.S. companies to ensure market transparency and harmonization abroad, and warns that domestic policy rollbacks further undermine American innovation and long-term energy competitiveness.

Geothermal energy in the U.S. is positioned for rapid growth due to bipartisan support and advancements in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), with 1.16 GW of capacity expected to come online by 2028. While the Trump administration has deprioritized wind and solar, geothermal has benefited from new categorical exclusions in permitting and expanded tax credits. EGS technology, leveraging oil and gas drilling techniques, allows for expansion beyond traditional geological constraints and is increasingly viewed as a viable 24/7 power source for AI data centers. However, the report notes that geothermal alone cannot meet 2030 electrical demand without the continued rollout of prospective wind and solar capacity.

The document analyzes the financial burden on Wisconsin Electric Power Company (WEPCO) ratepayers resulting from the early retirement of the coal-fired Oak Creek Power Plant and warns against repeating these mistakes by investing in new natural gas plants. It argues that clean energy alternatives and better regulatory scrutiny of load forecasts can prevent future stranded assets.

Holy Cross Energy is implementing a strategy to reach 100% renewable energy by 2030 through the deployment of distributed lithium-ion battery storage. By leveraging a $11 million USDA Rural Energy Savings Program (RESP) loan and Inflation Reduction Act direct pay tax credits, the cooperative has established the Power+ program, which provides on-bill financing for residential battery packs. This system allows the utility to perform energy arbitrage and peak shaving, reducing reliance on expensive natural-gas peaker plants while providing members with backup power during extreme weather and wildfires.

The report analyzes the US synthetic nitrogen fertilizer market, which is highly centralized with 71% of capacity held by four producers. It evaluates seven ammonia production pathways, ranging from mature 'blue ammonia' (SMR with CCS) to lab-scale electrochemical and photochemical methods. The document identifies key barriers to green ammonia adoption, including high financing risks, lack of industrial standards, and the absence of long-term offtake agreements from farmers. It highlights state-level incentives in North Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, New York, and Michigan, alongside federal support via the Inflation Reduction Act's 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit, which offers up to $3/kg of hydrogen.

The North Plains Connector (NPC) is a $3.2 billion, 420-mile high-voltage direct current transmission project designed to connect the western and eastern electric grids. The developer, North Plains Connector LLC, has adopted a "landowner-first approach," prioritizing voluntary agreements over eminent domain and modifying the route by adding 50 miles to accommodate local siting requests. Community benefits include $3.9 million in grants distributed via local foundations, over $62 million in federal TSED grants secured for local infrastructure, and the creation of approximately 800 construction jobs. The project also facilitates expanded wind energy exports for the Standing Rock Sioux. While this high-upfront-investment model has reduced local opposition, the document notes it requires "patient capital" and its long-term financial efficiency compared to traditional development remains unproven.

The document outlines the technical approach for modeling the 'Current Policies' and 'IRA Repeal' scenarios using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS). It details which specific IRA sections—including tax credits for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and carbon capture—were included in the analysis, which were omitted as 'out of scope,' and the specific assumptions used to calculate their effects on emissions and energy demand.

The report argues that repealing federal clean energy tax credits and funding programs would lead to significant job losses, increased household energy costs, reduced GDP, and higher air pollution levels in the United States between 2025 and 2035.