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European agriculture's heavy reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, produced primarily from natural gas, creates a direct link between energy price shocks and food costs. Analysis of 17 EU member states from 2019-2024 reveals that EUR 16.4 billion was spent on fertiliser that was never taken up by crops, with EUR 6.1 billion spent on the embedded natural gas for that wasted input. Environmental damage from synthetic nitrogen application during this period is estimated at EUR 233.7 billion, dominated by water pollution. The report argues that reducing synthetic nitrogen use by up to 43% through precision management and legume integration could save farmers up to EUR 5.08 billion annually and significantly reduce gas dependency. Modeling shows that the post-Ukraine invasion energy crisis pushed wheat prices up by approximately 22%, establishing a lasting structural link between energy and food prices.

The briefing examines the impact of energy supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran war, noting that the current crisis is larger than the 1970s oil embargo. It argues that while governments are using short-term fixes like strategic reserves and subsidies, the long-term solution lies in electrification, demand-side efficiency, and the scaling of 'green molecules' like hydrogen and ammonia. The text highlights specific vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia and the US, and suggests that mitigating methane leakage and flaring could recover energy volumes equivalent to approximately half of worldwide LNG trade.

The report examines how the petrochemical industry serves as a 'Plan B' for fossil fuel companies, creating physical and economic lock-in that threatens global decarbonization efforts. It highlights the rapid growth of plastics and ammonia production, the environmental and health costs of these chemicals, and the use of 'transition narratives' to justify new fossil infrastructure. The authors propose five strategic levers—financial strain, market uncertainty, greenwashing, human health impacts, and just transition frameworks—to curb this expansion and enable a full fossil fuel phaseout.

The authors argue that traditional 'primary energy' accounting is flawed because it ignores energy quality and conversion losses, creating a 'primary energy fallacy'. By reframing the system from the consumer's perspective and focusing on 'flows' (change) rather than 'stocks' (totals), the paper identifies four 'battles' of the energy transition. It concludes that 'electrotech' is winning the battles for electron supply, useful work, and useful heat due to superior thermodynamic efficiency, which significantly reduces the total primary energy required to meet human development needs.

Agriculture contributes roughly one-quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, with nitrogen fertilizer production, distribution, and use generating an estimated 1.31 gigatons of CO2-equivalent annually. While low-emission solutions like renewable-powered electrolysis exist, high costs and fragmented supply chains prevent scaling, as farmers cannot absorb price premiums and food companies lack direct mechanisms to fund producers. To bridge this gap, RMI and the Center for Green Market Activation (GMA) are launching a pilot book-and-claim system. This allows food and beverage companies to purchase Environmental Attribute Certificates (EACs) to claim verified emissions reductions toward Scope 3 targets, providing producers with the revenue certainty needed to finance capital-intensive green ammonia projects without disrupting conventional farmer procurement.

India is positioning itself as a green hydrogen hub by designating ports like V. O. Chidambaranar (VOC), Paradip, and Deendayal for hydrogen projects. While domestic coastal corridors provide learning opportunities, they lack the scale to be commercially viable, with e-fuel demand on the VOC–Deendayal route estimated at only 19–20 kilotons annually. In contrast, an international corridor linking Rotterdam, India, and Singapore could unlock over 1 million tons of annual e-fuel bunkering demand by 2030. The document highlights that while green methanol vessels have a total cost of ownership (TCO) nearly 80% higher than conventional vessels, IMO incentives and India's low-cost e-fuel production could make ammonia-powered vessels more competitive, potentially reducing TCO by 16% to 28% on routes to Singapore and Rotterdam respectively.

The briefing outlines a phased strategy for Jharkhand to transition from a mining-dependent economy to a green industrial base. It identifies four high-potential sectors—Clean Power, Green Molecules, Sustainable Mobility, and Green Equipment Manufacturing—which could generate USD 1.43 billion in annual state tax revenue. The transition requires a total cumulative investment of USD 41.4 billion, implemented across three phases from 2026 to 2070.

The paper explores the bidirectional relationship between agriculture and industrial policy. It highlights how agriculture's long experience with subsidies and market distortions can inform current green industrial strategies, while detailing how the transition to a bioeconomy and green energy affects agricultural inputs and land use. The author emphasizes the need for 'sustainable productivity' metrics and warns of fiscal asymmetries between high-income and low-income countries during this transition.

The document details a proposed expansion of at least 45 ammonia facilities in the US, primarily in Texas and Louisiana, which could quadruple production. It critiques the 'blue ammonia' label as greenwashing, noting that carbon capture systems often fail and that ammonia is a highly toxic substance. The text highlights the dangers of ammonia leaks to human health and aquatic ecosystems, citing specific recent disasters in Oklahoma, Iowa, and Illinois, and argues against creating speculative markets for ammonia as a shipping fuel or energy carrier.

The report assesses the economic impact of India's power sector decarbonization on Jharkhand, projecting significant losses in state revenue, PSU earnings, and employment. It proposes a three-phase strategic framework (Enabling, Scaling-up, and Viksit Bharat) to transition the state from a raw-material supplier to a cleantech manufacturing hub. The analysis identifies four priority investment areas—clean power, green molecules, sustainable mobility, and green equipment manufacturing—estimating a total capital requirement of USD 41.4 billion to substitute lost fossil fuel revenues and create new employment opportunities.

The document argues that renewable ammonia is becoming cost-competitive with fossil ammonia and proposes a framework for Brazil to achieve sustainable fertilizer production through strategic vision, policy alignment, investment mobilization, infrastructure expansion, and demand activation.

Africa's nitrogen fertilizer consumption is 5.5x below the global average, leaving 50 million small family farmers at a disadvantage due to high costs and price volatility of imported 'gray' fertilizers. The report argues that Distributed Green Ammonia (DGA) production—which is modular, smaller, and compatible with intermittent renewable energy—can provide a cheaper, more resilient local supply. It highlights emerging technologies such as novel Haber-Bosch systems, plasma catalysis, chemical looping, and direct electrochemical conversion. A commercial modular plant by TalusAg in Naivasha, Kenya, is cited as a proof of concept producing fertilizer over 50% cheaper than imports. Scaling these solutions requires cheap clean electricity, demand aggregation through partners like One Acre Fund, and access to local currency debt to mitigate currency volatility.

The report argues that Japan's continued reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), as outlined in its 7th Strategic Energy Plan, creates significant geopolitical security risks and threatens its 2050 net-zero target. It recommends a five-step acceleration of decarbonisation, focusing on grid modernisation, domestic renewable energy expansion, and methane abatement in the LNG supply chain.

The report identifies a significant gap in India's green hydrogen sector, where announced production capacity exceeds the 2030 target of 5 million metric tons (MMT) by 2.5 times, yet commissioned capacity remains below 0.01 MMT as of 2024. To address barriers like high costs and limited infrastructure, the report outlines five strategies to unlock 2.1–5 MMT of demand by 2030: blending in high-volume sectors (0.8–3.0 MMT), substitution in niche industries (0.04–0.07 MMT), green public procurement for steel (0.4–0.6 MMT), exporting hydrogen and ammonia (0.75–1.1 MMT), and exporting hydrogen-embedded products (0.1–0.2 MMT). It also emphasizes the need for enablers such as viability gap funding, sovereign guarantees, and hydrogen hubs.

Trend Asia criticizes the new PP KEN for extending the use of fossil fuels until 2060, lowering renewable energy targets for 2030, and promoting high-risk or non-renewable 'new energy' sources like nuclear, hydrogen, and ammonia. The report highlights the environmental and social risks of bioenergy, specifically co-firing and Energy Plantation Forests (HTE), which it links to deforestation and land grabbing. It further argues that the policy lacks transparency, excludes community-scale renewable energy, and prioritizes industrial interests over human rights and ecological sustainability.

The document proposes an "energy park" model that co-locates renewable generation with flexible industrial loads and long-duration storage to replace retiring coal capacity. Using Pueblo, Colorado, as a case study, the authors model a system combining 2,000 MW of solar, 1,600 MW of wind, short-duration batteries, and flexible loads (thermal batteries and electrolyzers). The findings indicate that such a park can achieve 99% reliability in mimicking the dispatch of the Comanche Unit 3 plant while providing significant local economic benefits, including over $40 million in annual property taxes and 350 permanent jobs. Financially, the energy park is estimated to be at least 50% cheaper for electricity ratepayers than a comparable small modular nuclear reactor.

In 2024, global coal capacity saw a net increase of 18.8GW, driven by record construction in China (94GW) and high proposals in India (38GW), despite the lowest new capacity additions in 20 years (44GW). While the EU27 quadrupled its closures and the UK fully phased out coal, Japan and South Korea are pursuing ammonia co-firing to extend the life of coal plants, a strategy the report describes as costly and inconsistent with the Paris Agreement.

In 2024, global new coal capacity reached its lowest level in 20 years, though total capacity still grew by 18.8 GW due to record construction starts in China and high proposal numbers in India. While OECD nations have seen planned coal plants drop from 142 in 2015 to 5 currently, Japan and South Korea are pursuing ammonia co-firing to extend coal use, a strategy the report describes as costly and inconsistent with Paris Agreement goals.

The report analyzes the US synthetic nitrogen fertilizer market, which is highly centralized with 71% of capacity held by four producers. It evaluates seven ammonia production pathways, ranging from mature 'blue ammonia' (SMR with CCS) to lab-scale electrochemical and photochemical methods. The document identifies key barriers to green ammonia adoption, including high financing risks, lack of industrial standards, and the absence of long-term offtake agreements from farmers. It highlights state-level incentives in North Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, New York, and Michigan, alongside federal support via the Inflation Reduction Act's 45V clean hydrogen production tax credit, which offers up to $3/kg of hydrogen.

The document identifies China as the world's largest producer and consumer of ammonia, noting that coal-based production is highly carbon-intensive, with hydrogen generation accounting for over 85 percent of emissions. It highlights that while China's green ammonia industry is growing, it faces challenges regarding the intermittent nature of renewable power and higher costs compared to traditional methods. The report proposes integrating policy, downstream premiums, and carbon markets to reach cost parity and suggests actions for policy makers and enterprises to accelerate the transition.