Food security in Europe is structurally exposed to energy markets through synthetic fertiliser

European agriculture's heavy reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, produced primarily from natural gas, creates a direct link between energy price shocks and food costs. Analysis of 17 EU member states from 2019-2024 reveals that EUR 16.4 billion was spent on fertiliser that was never taken up by crops, with EUR 6.1 billion spent on the embedded natural gas for that wasted input. Environmental damage from synthetic nitrogen application during this period is estimated at EUR 233.7 billion, dominated by water pollution. The report argues that reducing synthetic nitrogen use by up to 43% through precision management and legume integration could save farmers up to EUR 5.08 billion annually and significantly reduce gas dependency. Modeling shows that the post-Ukraine invasion energy crisis pushed wheat prices up by approximately 22%, establishing a lasting structural link between energy and food prices.

• European fertiliser production is acutely sensitive to natural gas prices because the ammonia industry relies almost entirely on natural gas for both feedstock and energy, with gas costs accounting for 60-80% of production costs.
• Between 2019 and 2024, farmers in 17 assessed EU member states spent EUR 16.4 billion on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser that was not absorbed by crops. France, Spain, Poland, and Germany were the highest spenders, representing over half of the total value.
• The natural gas embedded in wasted fertiliser cost EUR 6.1 billion from 2019 to 2024, with costs spiking from EUR 0.4 billion in 2019 to EUR 2.9 billion in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• Total social and environmental damage costs from synthetic nitrogen application in the EU between 2019 and 2024 reached EUR 233.7 billion. Water pollution (groundwater contamination and surface water loading) caused 79% of these costs, while ammonia emissions contributed roughly 12.5%.
• Implementing input-reduction measures could lower synthetic nitrogen usage by up to 43%, potentially saving farmers up to EUR 5.08 billion annually in fertiliser bills and reducing annual gas costs by between EUR 1.1 billion and EUR 3.9 billion depending on gas prices.
• Energy price shocks transmit directly to food prices; modeling indicates that the energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine increased wheat prices by approximately 22% beyond what market conditions would have otherwise implied.
• The structural link between energy and food prices has persisted after the initial crisis; in post-crisis windows, gas and urea together explained 50-60% of wheat price variation over a 12-month horizon, compared to 13-14% before 2020.

APA

Bentley-McKune, J. (2026). Food security in Europe is structurally exposed to energy markets through synthetic fertiliser. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ZCA-Briefing-Food-security-in-Europe-is-structurally-exposed-to-energy-markets-through-synthetic-fertiliser-June2026.pdf

Chicago

Bentley-McKune, Joanne. Food security in Europe is structurally exposed to energy markets through synthetic fertiliser. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2026. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ZCA-Briefing-Food-security-in-Europe-is-structurally-exposed-to-energy-markets-through-synthetic-fertiliser-June2026.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley-McKune |first1=Joanne |title=Food security in Europe is structurally exposed to energy markets through synthetic fertiliser |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=June 2026 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ZCA-Briefing-Food-security-in-Europe-is-structurally-exposed-to-energy-markets-through-synthetic-fertiliser-June2026.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentleymckune2026food, author = {Bentley-McKune, Joanne}, title = {{Food security in Europe is structurally exposed to energy markets through synthetic fertiliser}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/ZCA-Briefing-Food-security-in-Europe-is-structurally-exposed-to-energy-markets-through-synthetic-fertiliser-June2026.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }