Revisiting Japan’s Sustainable Growth Strategy

The report argues that Japan's continued reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), as outlined in its 7th Strategic Energy Plan, creates significant geopolitical security risks and threatens its 2050 net-zero target. It recommends a five-step acceleration of decarbonisation, focusing on grid modernisation, domestic renewable energy expansion, and methane abatement in the LNG supply chain.

• Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan, adopted in February 2025, maintains a long-term reliance on imported gas and lacks a phaseout date for coal, which the report argues threatens the credibility of the 2050 net-zero target.
• Geopolitical tensions create specific risks for Japan's LNG supply chains, including instability in the Strait of Hormuz (affecting 20% of global LNG flows) and disputes in the South China Sea (where 30% of Japan's LNG imports transit).
• The report identifies a critical climate risk in the LNG value chain: methane emissions. IEA data suggests that 30% of GHG emissions in the LNG supply chain are methane, and implementing all available abatement technologies could reduce these emissions by 85% compared to 2024 levels.
• Japan's electricity grid is constrained by minimal interconnectivity between three major segments (East, West, and Hokkaido), necessitating an estimated investment of 6–7 trillion JPY (approximately 40 billion USD) for modernisation.
• While the government targets renewables at 40–50% of the energy mix by 2040, independent studies suggest that wind and solar could potentially supply 70% to 80% of Japan's electricity by 2035.

APA

Tsuzuki, S. (2025). Revisiting Japan’s Sustainable Growth Strategy. Climate Bonds Initiative. https://www.climatebonds.net/files/documents/publications/Japan_Sustainable_Growth_Strategy.pdf

Chicago

Tsuzuki, Sala. Revisiting Japan’s Sustainable Growth Strategy. Climate Bonds Initiative, 2025. https://www.climatebonds.net/files/documents/publications/Japan_Sustainable_Growth_Strategy.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tsuzuki |first1=Sala |title=Revisiting Japan’s Sustainable Growth Strategy |publisher=Climate Bonds Initiative |date=July 2025 |url=https://www.climatebonds.net/files/documents/publications/Japan_Sustainable_Growth_Strategy.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tsuzuki2025revisiting, author = {Tsuzuki, Sala}, title = {{Revisiting Japan’s Sustainable Growth Strategy}}, institution = {Climate Bonds Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatebonds.net/files/documents/publications/Japan_Sustainable_Growth_Strategy.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }