The Devil is in the Details: Minerals, Batteries, and US Dependence on Chinese Imports

The report highlights a critical gap in US trade data that obscures the extent of firm-level dependence on Chinese suppliers for battery minerals and components. While China dominates global production—controlling 70% of battery pack assembly and 91% of anode production—current US tracking relies on outdated Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes and allows firms to hide import partners. The authors recommend updating trade codes, enhancing intergovernmental data sharing, expanding reporting requirements for electric vehicle tax credits, and leading international efforts for trade code standardization to enable more nuanced policymaking and supply chain diversification.

• China maintains a dominant position across the global battery value chain, controlling 70% of battery pack assembly and 91% of anode production. Specifically, CATL alone accounts for 35% of global battery pack assembly, while the top ten spherical graphite providers are all Chinese firms, collectively holding a 71% market share.
• The US imports nearly 75% of its lithium-ion batteries from China, though the domestic market is partially buffered by the fact that the US produced enough for more than 70% of its own electric vehicle battery needs in 2023.
• Current US trade data is insufficient for assessing national security risks because Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes are outdated and aggregate data at the country level, which masks the role of Chinese firms operating through foreign subsidiaries, such as those in Poland.
• Importers can deliberately hide their supply chain partners from public view by using freight forwarders or by filing for 'Confidential Treatment of Vessel Manifest Data' with US Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
• The US government has limited visibility into the provenance of minerals; while the Department of Energy collects detailed data from manufacturers seeking Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits, this data is likely skewed toward firms that have already decoupled their supply chains from China.
• The US Department of Defense blacklisted CATL and 134 other Chinese companies in January 2025, rendering them ineligible for DOD contracts due to alleged ties to the Chinese military.

APA

Taulli, B., & Busby, J. (2025). The Devil is in the Details: Minerals, Batteries, and US Dependence on Chinese Imports. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/30/the-devil-is-in-the-details-minerals-batteries-and-us-dependence-on-chinese-imports/

Chicago

Taulli, Benjamin, and Joshua Busby. The Devil is in the Details: Minerals, Batteries, and US Dependence on Chinese Imports. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/30/the-devil-is-in-the-details-minerals-batteries-and-us-dependence-on-chinese-imports/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Taulli |first1=Benjamin |last2=Busby |first2=Joshua |title=The Devil is in the Details: Minerals, Batteries, and US Dependence on Chinese Imports |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=30 May 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/30/the-devil-is-in-the-details-minerals-batteries-and-us-dependence-on-chinese-imports/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{taulli2025devil, author = {Taulli, Benjamin and Busby, Joshua}, title = {{The Devil is in the Details: Minerals, Batteries, and US Dependence on Chinese Imports}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/30/the-devil-is-in-the-details-minerals-batteries-and-us-dependence-on-chinese-imports/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }