Maximizing the Climate Co-Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Targeted Allocation

The report proposes optimizing the limited supply of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by targeting its use at airports with the highest contrail and particulate matter (PM) impacts. Analysis of 16.6 million flights in 2024 reveals that 2% of flights generate 80% of contrail-related warming. In the U.S., JFK, LAX, and O'Hare are identified as primary targets, while Heathrow, Istanbul Airport, and Paris CDG are the top candidates in Europe. The study finds that a 50% SAF blend can reduce LTO particulate emissions by 26-28% and contrail-related warming by 30-40%. While airport-wide targeting is simplest, time-based and flight-based strategies are more fuel-efficient. Implementation faces logistical hurdles, particularly at airports using hydrant fuel systems, but the report suggests these can be overcome through policy incentives and infrastructure investment.

• A small fraction of aviation activity is responsible for the vast majority of contrail-related warming, with approximately 2% of flights generating 80% of the total impact.
• In the United States, John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) is a significant outlier for contrail impact due to its high volume of international flights over the North Atlantic, a region prone to ice-supersaturated regions (ISSR) in winter.
• Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport is the largest source of landing and take-off (LTO) particulate matter (PM) emissions in the U.S. because it operates a high share of older-generation aircraft, which can emit up to 20 times more PM than newer engines.
• London Heathrow is identified as the world's largest single contributor to aviation-related warming when combining CO2 emissions and contrail impacts, driven by its massive traffic volume and globally distributed long-haul routes.
• A 50% SAF blend at targeted airports can reduce LTO particulate emissions by 26-28% and contrail-related warming by 30-34% in the U.S. and 33-40% in Europe.
• Targeted SAF use provides quantifiable public health benefits; for example, a 50% airport-wide blend at JFK is estimated to avoid 2.2 premature deaths per year and generate over $30 million in monetized health benefits.
• Time-based targeting (focusing on winter months or evening hours) is more fuel-efficient than airport-wide blending for reducing contrails, as it focuses on the subset of flights most likely to generate warming contrails.
• Flight-based targeting, using ISSR forecasting software to fuel only contrail-prone flights, represents the theoretical upper bound of efficiency, potentially reducing contrail warming by 20-26% while only requiring SAF for 6-13% of flights.
• Logistical challenges for SAF targeting are highest at airports with shared pipeline networks and hydrant systems, whereas truck-based fueling infrastructure is more flexible for targeted allocation.

APA

III, T. K. W., & Maroto, L. M. (2026). Maximizing the Climate Co-Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Targeted Allocation. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/maximizing-co-benefits-saf.pdf

Chicago

III, Thomas K. Walker, and Lucía M. Maroto. Maximizing the Climate Co-Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Targeted Allocation. Clean Air Task Force, 2026. https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/maximizing-co-benefits-saf.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=III |first1=Thomas K. Walker |last2=Maroto |first2=Lucía M. |title=Maximizing the Climate Co-Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Targeted Allocation |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=July 2026 |url=https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/maximizing-co-benefits-saf.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{iii2026maximizing, author = {III, Thomas K. Walker and Maroto, Lucía M.}, title = {{Maximizing the Climate Co-Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Targeted Allocation}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2026}, month = jul, url = {https://www.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/maximizing-co-benefits-saf.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }