Leapfrogging

The document examines 'technological leapfrogging' in Africa, focusing on how decentralised renewable energy, mobile finance, and artificial intelligence can overcome infrastructure deficits. It presents a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario projecting significant GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while providing policy recommendations to address structural bottlenecks in skills, financing, and regulation.

• Africa can bypass traditional fossil fuel-based energy systems by scaling decentralised renewable solutions. Solar-based off-grid and mini-grid systems are expanding electricity access more affordably than traditional grids, particularly in rural areas. World Bank estimates suggest that providing electricity to 380 million people by 2030 would require over 160,000 mini-grids at a cost of approximately US$ 91 billion.
• Mobile technology has fundamentally transformed financial inclusion in Africa, with sub-Saharan Africa leading globally. By 2025, the region had over 1 billion mobile money accounts and 280 million active users, with annual transaction values exceeding US$1 trillion. M-Pesa specifically processed approximately 37 billion transactions in 2025.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) is identified as the next frontier for leapfrogging, with the potential to generate up to US$ 1 trillion in additional GDP by 2035. AI can bypass constraints in healthcare, agriculture, and tax administration; for example, the South African Revenue Service (SARS) uses AI and advanced analytics to detect tax evasion and improve compliance.
• Digital ID systems are critical for formalising Africa's large informal economy, which accounted for approximately 27% of GDP and 58% of the labour force in 2024. Full digital ID coverage is estimated to potentially unlock economic value equal to 3–13% of GDP by 2030.
• The 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario projects that by 2050, strategic investments in technology and infrastructure could increase Africa's average GDP per capita (PPP) by about US$510 and expand the overall economy by nearly US$1 trillion compared to current path projections.
• Under the optimistic scenario, extreme poverty in Africa could be reduced by 63 million people by 2050, bringing the total number of people in poverty down to around 299 million and reducing the poverty rate to 11.5%.
• Specific technological applications have already shown success: drones in Mozambique (Third Eye project) increased crop yields by 41% and reduced water use by 9%, while Zipline drones in Rwanda reduced blood delivery times from 4 hours to 15 minutes.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). Leapfrogging. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/09-leapfrog/

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Leapfrogging. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/09-leapfrog/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Leapfrogging |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/09-leapfrog/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026leapfrogging, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Leapfrogging}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/09-leapfrog/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }