Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the energy access gap in Africa and the potential for 'leapfrogging' traditional fossil-fuel grids in favor of decentralized renewable energy systems, specifically solar-based mini-grids and off-grid solutions.

• Energy access in Africa remains a significant challenge, with only 58.5% of the population having electricity in 2022, leaving approximately 600 million people without power. This deficit is most acute in sub-Saharan Africa, where access was 51.5% in 2022, compared to a global average of 91.3%.
• There is a stark disparity in electricity access between urban and rural areas; in 2022, 83% of urban residents had electricity while only 42% of rural residents did. Furthermore, per capita electricity consumption in Africa fell from roughly 660 kWh in 2015 to 514.7 kWh in 2022, the lowest level in over twenty years.
• Traditional grid expansion is considered too slow and expensive to close the energy gap, particularly for dispersed rural communities. Solar-based off-grid and mini-grid systems are identified as the most practical pathway for rapid expansion. World Bank estimates suggest that providing electricity to 380 million people by 2030 would require over 160,000 mini-grids at a cost of approximately US$ 91 billion.
• Despite possessing about 60% of the world's best solar resources, Africa faces a severe shortfall in clean energy financing. Between 2021 and 2022, clean energy finance grew by only 2.5% in sub-Saharan Africa, while Latin America saw growth of over 100%. Financing is further threatened by shifting geopolitical priorities, such as the US ending its Power Africa initiative.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=02-leapfrogging-africa-energy-sector

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=02-leapfrogging-africa-energy-sector.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=02-leapfrogging-africa-energy-sector |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026leapfrogging, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Leapfrogging in Africa’s Energy Sector: The Transformative Potential of Renewables}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=02-leapfrogging-africa-energy-sector}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }