Namibia Development Futures

The report projects Namibia's economic and social future to 2043. While GDP per capita is expected to rise on the Current Path, the country faces persistent extreme poverty and food insecurity. Sectoral scenarios suggest that manufacturing, free trade, and agriculture offer the highest potential for economic growth, while a combined 'Agenda 2063' approach could significantly lift millions out of poverty, albeit at the cost of increased carbon emissions.

• On the Current Path forecast, Namibia's GDP per capita is projected to increase from US$6,227 in 2019 to US$15,293 by 2043, while the informal sector's contribution to GDP is expected to decline from 17% to 14.5% in the same period.
• Despite economic growth, extreme poverty (defined as living on less than US$5.50 per day) is projected to remain high, declining from 65.8% of the population in 2019 to 47% by 2043 on the Current Path.
• Namibia faces a significant risk of future food insecurity; by 2043, agricultural demand is projected to surpass domestic production by 1.25 million metric tons, representing a 51.4% shortfall.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 3.2 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, with the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario resulting in the highest emissions at 3.5 million tons.
• The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario is identified as the most impactful single sector for economic growth, potentially increasing GDP per capita by 8.8% (US$1,351) over the Current Path and reducing the extreme poverty rate to 41.2%.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the full implementation of the AfCFTA by 2034, could raise GDP per capita to US$16,361 (7% above the Current Path) and reduce extreme poverty to 44.3% by 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario focuses on technology and energy, projecting that 88.1% of the population will have electricity access by 2043, compared to 78.1% on the Current Path.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, projects a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$23,262 (a 52.1% increase over the Current Path) and a reduction in extreme poverty to 28.7% of the population.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the total size of the economy is expected to grow by an additional 66.8% compared to the Current Path, reaching US$69.2 billion by 2043.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Namibia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Namibia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Namibia Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026namibia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Namibia Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }