ISS African Futures

This report provides a detailed development forecast for Namibia up to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. It outlines a 'Current Path' based on existing policies and evaluates several sectoral scenarios—including stability, health, agriculture, and education—to determine their potential impact on GDP per capita and extreme poverty. The report concludes with a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which aggregates these interventions to project a significantly higher economic trajectory and a substantial reduction in poverty.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Namibia's GDP per capita is projected to increase from US$6,227 in 2019 to US$15,293 by 2043, while the informal sector's contribution to GDP is expected to decrease from 17% in 2019 to 14.5% in 2043.
• Extreme poverty, defined as living below US$5.50 per day, is projected to decline from 65.8% of the population (1.7 million people) in 2019 to 47% (1.8 million people) by 2043 on the Current Path.
• Namibia faces a significant risk of future food insecurity; by 2043, agricultural demand is projected to surpass domestic production by 1.25 million metric tons, representing a 51.4% shortfall.
• Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 3.2 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, with the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario resulting in the highest emissions at 3.5 million tons.
• The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario is identified as the most impactful single sector for economic growth, potentially increasing GDP per capita by US$1,351 (8.8%) over the Current Path and reducing the extreme poverty rate to 41.2% by 2043.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects a significant increase in electricity access, reaching 88.1% of the population (3.4 million people) by 2043, compared to 78.1% (3 million people) on the Current Path.
• Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) under the Free Trade scenario is projected to raise GDP per capita to US$16,361 by 2043 (7% above the Current Path), although it may worsen the trade deficit to 10.3% of GDP by that time.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates all 11 sectoral interventions, projects a GDP per capita of US$23,262 by 2043—a 52.1% increase over the Current Path—and reduces extreme poverty to 28.7% of the population.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, the total size of the Namibian economy is expected to grow to US$69.2 billion by 2043, which is 66.8% larger than the Current Path estimate of US$41.5 billion.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=NA}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }