Search Climate Insights Directory

The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.

The document examines the debate over South Africa's economic trajectory. While Treasury and business argue that structural reforms in electricity and transport, along with modest growth increases from 0.6% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, signal a recovery, critics argue that growth remains below population growth (1.33%) and is insufficient to address unemployment. The briefing highlights a decline in the investment-to-GDP ratio to approximately 14% and warns that fiscal austerity and contractionary monetary policies may stifle growth. Additionally, it notes that an emerging international crisis involving the war on Iran and rising oil prices threatens the economy with stagflation, potentially exacerbated by a hawkish Reserve Bank and a lack of a major fiscal stimulus package.

The African Forum and Network on Debt and Development (AFRODAD) asserts that Africa's water insecurity is driven by a global financial architecture that imposes high borrowing costs and austerity on African nations. The statement highlights a significant annual funding gap of at least $30 billion for water infrastructure and links this shortfall to a debt crisis where African governments spend an average of 18.7% of public revenue on repayments. AFRODAD calls for systemic reforms, including a UN Framework Convention on Sovereign Debt and the recognition of historical injustices through the Africa Decade of Reparations (2026–2036), to enable sustainable investment in water and sanitation.

The government of Benin and the BCEAO responded to COVID-19 with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, including cash transfers, subsidies, and increased liquidity for banks and the agricultural sector. While these measures stimulated aggregate demand and supported food security, the expansion of the money supply led to higher consumer price inflation, which threatened real household incomes. The brief recommends transitioning to contractionary monetary policy during periods of economic growth to curb inflation and better targeting future fiscal spending toward vulnerable households and hard-hit sectors like hospitality and industry to maximize the fiscal multiplier effect.

The report examines the sustainability of Norway's reliance on the oil and gas sector in the context of global emissions targets and a net-zero future beyond 2050. It analyzes the political debate surrounding the 2021 general election, the positions of industry associations and trade unions, and the economic risks of maintaining the fossil fuel sector as a pillar of the Norwegian economy.

The report analyzes how pre-pandemic economic conditions in 60 developing nations create vulnerabilities to COVID-19-induced trade shocks. It examines five key markets—production, trade, capital, currency, and labour—to identify risks such as global value chain disruptions, 'sudden stops' in foreign investment, and currency crises. The analysis emphasizes that countries with high reliance on specific sectors like international tourism or those with significant trade deficits and foreign-denominated debt are most at risk. The author urges the diversification of global value chains over protectionism to build long-term resilience.

The report argues that sub-Saharan Africa's inability to reduce poverty is rooted in rapid population growth and high demographic dependency ratios. While aid has provided modest positive impacts on growth and significant improvements in health and education indicators, it remains palliative unless it can sustain inclusive economic growth. The author presents three aid scenarios to 2030 (Current Path, More Aid, and Less Aid) and a fourth scenario focusing on reduced fertility. The analysis concludes that matching Ethiopia's fertility decline would have a significantly more positive impact on poverty rates by 2030 and 2040 than a substantial increase in aid.

The document examines Angola's economic performance between 2002 and 2008, highlighting the risks associated with high oil intensity and the potential for 'peak oil' between 2010 and 2025. It argues that while the oil sector has a positive direct impact on the non-oil sector, a poor business climate and weak public spending effectiveness hinder broader development. The author recommends prioritizing domestic capital investment over the creation of a national wealth fund and emphasizes the need for transparent public finance management and democratic stability to ensure long-term economic sustainability.

The report examines how the liberalization of tourism services in South Africa interacts with economic growth, social equity, and environmental conservation. It finds that while tourism is a significant employer and GDP contributor, the links between trade liberalization and sustainable development are indirect, primarily manifesting as increased foreign investment and overseas visitor arrivals. Through case studies of Phinda Game Reserve, Greater St Lucia Wetlands Park, and Amadiba Adventures, the document demonstrates that different ownership structures—private, government, and community—each offer distinct incentives for environmental preservation and community benefit, though institutional inertia and lack of coordination often hinder the potential of public-sector management.

The document argues that while loans from development partners have helped launch social protection schemes in Kenya and Tanzania, they create long-term debt sustainability risks and may undermine national autonomy. It advocates for a shift toward grant-based financing and domestic resource mobilization to ensure the sustainability of social protection floors.

The assessment examines the paths to renewable energy penetration in India, finding that wind and solar energy now offer higher returns and lower risk than coal and natural gas. It further indicates that achieving the 175 GW renewable energy target could create between 2 million and 4.5 million jobs in the wind and solar sectors by 2042.

The paper finds that while Senegal has made progress in renewable energy and direct access to climate finance, its overall NDC implementation is unsatisfactory. Key obstacles include a significant funding gap, the lack of a national measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) system, and a strategic shift toward oil and gas exploitation that threatens carbon-reduction goals.

The document examines Tanzania's transition from socialist policies to a market-determined economy, noting a sustained GDP growth rate of 7% between 2010 and 2019. It analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this growth, causing a decline in tourism and traditional exports, while highlighting that a 'business as usual' approach helped the country avoid a recession in 2020. The paper details fiscal and monetary interventions, such as increasing health spending and lowering discount rates, and recommends further macroprudential policies and social protection to support vulnerable populations and ensure a climate-resilient recovery.

The document analyzes the macroeconomic resilience of Uganda and Rwanda between 2000 and 2020, identifying five shared crisis periods triggered by exogenous shocks such as the global financial crisis, climate events, and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines how these shocks transmitted through the economies—affecting export growth, inflation, and capital formation—and highlights the specific vulnerabilities of both nations, including reliance on foreign aid and agricultural productivity. The authors recommend increasing capital inflows, improving domestic revenue mobilization, enhancing agricultural productivity, and operationalizing climate change adaptation strategies to build future resilience.