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The document examines the debate over South Africa's economic trajectory. While Treasury and business argue that structural reforms in electricity and transport, along with modest growth increases from 0.6% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, signal a recovery, critics argue that growth remains below population growth (1.33%) and is insufficient to address unemployment. The briefing highlights a decline in the investment-to-GDP ratio to approximately 14% and warns that fiscal austerity and contractionary monetary policies may stifle growth. Additionally, it notes that an emerging international crisis involving the war on Iran and rising oil prices threatens the economy with stagflation, potentially exacerbated by a hawkish Reserve Bank and a lack of a major fiscal stimulus package.

The report finds that electric vehicle (EV) drivers in all U.S. states can expect cost savings per trip and annually compared to gas vehicle drivers. The highest savings occur in Washington State due to high gasoline prices and low residential electricity rates, while the lowest savings are found in Hawaii due to higher electricity costs. The analysis focuses on three vehicle classes—sedans, SUVs, and trucks—using 2023 base models and a mix of home and public charging data.

The Ukraine war has accelerated a shift toward transactional alliances in the Middle East, empowering states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy while weakening others like Egypt. As US influence diminishes and Russia focuses on its war effort, China has expanded its role from an economic power to a diplomatic mediator, exemplified by brokering the March 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The document also notes that Vladimir Putin's authoritarian leadership style and anti-Western ideological framing resonate with regional strongmen, posing a challenge to the liberal democratic order and the normative foreign policy of states like Norway.

Algeria has significantly reduced income poverty and improved its Human Development Index deficit between 1990 and 2015. While universal social services and subsidies have lessened inequality, poor targeting has created new disparities, including a 28% consumption gap between the rich and poor. Poverty is heavily concentrated in the south, with rates twice as high in the Sahara and three times the national average in the Steppe region. Current estimates indicate approximately 2% of the population lives on less than US$3.20 per day, while the 2019 Multidimensional Poverty Index estimated 2.1% of Algerians as multidimensionally poor, with education being the primary driver of deprivation.

The report finds that South Africa faces a cumulative transition risk of over $120 billion in present value terms between 2013 and 2035, primarily driven by falling demand and prices for coal exports. While the public balance sheet explicitly faces only 16% of this downside risk, implicit transfers—such as bailouts and social support—could increase the national government's share to over half. The analysis highlights that approximately 75% of these risks are external, and nearly 50% were already realized by 2017. Furthermore, current investment incentives may add another $25.8 billion in risk through projects like new oil refineries and coal infrastructure. The report recommends that the government adopt transition risk assessments, reconsider high-risk investments, and potentially tax oil price windfalls to offset losses.

The research paper assesses the economic viability of CCS technologies in the UK, specifically comparing CO2-EOR paired with DSF storage against standalone DSF storage. Using a stochastic model calibrated with UK futures market data for electricity, oil, and carbon allowances, the authors find that only the EOR-paired option is potentially profitable, provided long-term oil prices remain high. The study highlights that current carbon prices are insufficient to incentivize standalone CCS and that the option to delay investment increases the required 'trigger price' for oil to make immediate investment optimal.

A nationally representative survey of 1,001 US adults found that 48% believe oil prices are likely to triple and cause harm to human health, while 44% view sharp price increases as "very harmful" to health. Notably, those who are very conservative or strongly dismissive of climate change were the most likely to perceive these severe health consequences.

The document details the cost assumptions for oil, natural gas, and coal used in the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Reference case. The UCS model primarily adopts assumptions from the EIA's AEO 2008 High Energy Project Cost and High Energy Price cases but modifies the duration of cost escalations. Specifically, the UCS Reference case limits pipeline cost escalation to 2014 and construction cost escalation to 2010, whereas the EIA often projected these increases through 2030. The text compares these assumptions with the AEO 2009 Reference case, noting differences in projected price trajectories for crude oil, wellhead natural gas, and coal through 2030.

The report warns that Angola is on the verge of a return to war due to the failure of the Lusaka Peace Accords and the refusal of UNITA to hand over territory. It highlights a precarious economic state for the Luanda government, characterized by a US $10 billion debt and falling oil prices, which may motivate a military push to secure diamond wealth. The analysis suggests that while the government (FAA) possesses air and armor superiority, the terrain of the Central Highlands and poor troop discipline could lead to a costly or stalled offensive. Three scenarios are presented: a successful government victory, a protracted stalemate, or a decisive UNITA victory leading to renegotiated peace terms.