Climate 2030 Blueprint

The document details the cost assumptions for oil, natural gas, and coal used in the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Reference case. The UCS model primarily adopts assumptions from the EIA's AEO 2008 High Energy Project Cost and High Energy Price cases but modifies the duration of cost escalations. Specifically, the UCS Reference case limits pipeline cost escalation to 2014 and construction cost escalation to 2010, whereas the EIA often projected these increases through 2030. The text compares these assumptions with the AEO 2009 Reference case, noting differences in projected price trajectories for crude oil, wellhead natural gas, and coal through 2030.

• The UCS Reference case for oil and gas well drilling and pipeline construction costs is based on the AEO 2008 High Energy Project Cost case, but it restricts pipeline cost escalation to end in 2014 to align with electricity sector assumptions, unlike the EIA's projection which extends to 2030.
• For coal price projections, the UCS Reference case aligns with the AEO 2008 High Energy Price case and remains slightly above the AEO 2008 Reference case, while staying below the AEO 2009 Reference case forecast.
• The UCS Reference case for coal construction costs adopts the AEO 2008 High Energy Project Cost case but limits the cost escalation period to 2010.
• Natural gas wellhead prices in the UCS Reference case are slightly higher than the AEO 2009 Reference case until 2025, then become slightly lower for the final five years of the forecast.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2009). Climate 2030 Blueprint. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-a-fuel-prices.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Climate 2030 Blueprint. 2009. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-a-fuel-prices.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Climate 2030 Blueprint |date=May 2009 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-a-fuel-prices.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2009climate, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Climate 2030 Blueprint}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2009}, month = may, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate2030-app-a-fuel-prices.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }