Transactional Alliances: The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East

The Ukraine war has accelerated a shift toward transactional alliances in the Middle East, empowering states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to pursue greater strategic autonomy while weakening others like Egypt. As US influence diminishes and Russia focuses on its war effort, China has expanded its role from an economic power to a diplomatic mediator, exemplified by brokering the March 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement. The document also notes that Vladimir Putin's authoritarian leadership style and anti-Western ideological framing resonate with regional strongmen, posing a challenge to the liberal democratic order and the normative foreign policy of states like Norway.

• The Ukraine war has created a divide in the Middle East between energy-rich states that have leveraged high oil prices and energy shortages to increase their influence, and states facing domestic instability due to reliance on imported food and fertilizer.
• Egypt has been significantly weakened by the compounding effects of the Ukraine war, COVID-19, and corruption, leaving it financially dependent on Gulf monarchies that have provided $92 billion to maintain President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi's power, with an additional $20 billion promised in investments and deposits.
• Russia utilizes the Middle East to bolster its economy under sanctions, with the UAE serving as its largest trading partner, accounting for 90% of Moscow's investments in Arab countries and 55% of Russian-Gulf trade.
• Authoritarian regimes in the Middle East value Russian arms because they are less expensive and lack the conditionalities associated with Western weaponry, despite being technologically inferior.
• China has transitioned from a primarily economic actor to a diplomatic one in the region, notably brokering a March 10, 2023, agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a move that sidelined US mediation efforts.
• The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia has become increasingly transactional and strained due to US policies regarding Iran, the labeling of Saudi Arabia as a "pariah state" after the Jamal Khashoggi killing, and a perceived lack of US security guarantees following the 2019 Aramco attack.
• Vladimir Putin's ideological framing of the war as a campaign against Western liberal values and the "spiritual disaster" of the West appeals to Middle Eastern authoritarian leaders who seek economic liberalization without political liberalization.

APA

Tank, P. (2023). Transactional Alliances: The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/34ec437e-afe6-49e1-83b9-53a87d395bcc/Tank - Transactional Alliances The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East MidEast Policy Brief 3-2023.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tank, Pinar. Transactional Alliances: The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2023. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/34ec437e-afe6-49e1-83b9-53a87d395bcc/Tank - Transactional Alliances The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East MidEast Policy Brief 3-2023.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tank |first1=Pinar |title=Transactional Alliances: The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=March 2023 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/34ec437e-afe6-49e1-83b9-53a87d395bcc/Tank - Transactional Alliances The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East MidEast Policy Brief 3-2023.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tank2023transactional, author = {Tank, Pinar}, title = {{Transactional Alliances: The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2023}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/34ec437e-afe6-49e1-83b9-53a87d395bcc/Tank - Transactional Alliances The Impact of the Ukraine War on the Middle East MidEast Policy Brief 3-2023.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }