Assessing the Macroeconomic Resilience of Uganda and Rwanda

The document analyzes the macroeconomic resilience of Uganda and Rwanda between 2000 and 2020, identifying five shared crisis periods triggered by exogenous shocks such as the global financial crisis, climate events, and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines how these shocks transmitted through the economies—affecting export growth, inflation, and capital formation—and highlights the specific vulnerabilities of both nations, including reliance on foreign aid and agricultural productivity. The authors recommend increasing capital inflows, improving domestic revenue mobilization, enhancing agricultural productivity, and operationalizing climate change adaptation strategies to build future resilience.

• Uganda and Rwanda experienced five similar major crisis periods between 2000 and 2020, primarily driven by exogenous factors including the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, drought, coffee price declines, aid flow disruptions, and Kenyan elections.
• The COVID-19 pandemic caused a more severe economic contraction in Rwanda, where GDP per capita declined by -5.65%, compared to a -0.42% decline in Uganda; the authors suggest Uganda's previous experience with Ebola and Marburg may have contributed to its higher resilience.
• Climate-related shocks, specifically periodic floods and droughts, negatively impacted both countries by constraining export growth, increasing inflation, and reducing private consumption.
• Both countries faced significant economic disruptions in 2012 due to reductions in foreign aid; Uganda saw an abrupt suspension of budget support following the diversion of $15 million, while Rwanda experienced delayed disbursements and a drop in official development assistance (ODA) from an average of 11% of GDP to 1.5% in 2013.
• Public debt in both nations has grown steadily since 2012 due to expansive fiscal policies, though it is currently considered sustainable because a high proportion of the debt is concessional: 61.1% for Uganda and 86.2% for Rwanda.
• Both countries face a moderate risk of debt distress linked to poor domestic revenue performance, with Uganda's revenue at 13.9% of GDP and Rwanda's at 15.8% of GDP.

APA

Kavuma, S., & Kisaame, E. K. (n.d.). Assessing the Macroeconomic Resilience of Uganda and Rwanda. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_24_ResilienceUgandaRwanda.pdf

Chicago

Kavuma, Susan, and Emmanuel Keith Kisaame. Assessing the Macroeconomic Resilience of Uganda and Rwanda. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_24_ResilienceUgandaRwanda.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kavuma |first1=Susan |last2=Kisaame |first2=Emmanuel Keith |title=Assessing the Macroeconomic Resilience of Uganda and Rwanda |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_24_ResilienceUgandaRwanda.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kavumandassessing, author = {Kavuma, Susan and Kisaame, Emmanuel Keith}, title = {{Assessing the Macroeconomic Resilience of Uganda and Rwanda}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_24_ResilienceUgandaRwanda.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }