Fertility, growth and the future of aid in sub-Saharan Africa

The report argues that sub-Saharan Africa's inability to reduce poverty is rooted in rapid population growth and high demographic dependency ratios. While aid has provided modest positive impacts on growth and significant improvements in health and education indicators, it remains palliative unless it can sustain inclusive economic growth. The author presents three aid scenarios to 2030 (Current Path, More Aid, and Less Aid) and a fourth scenario focusing on reduced fertility. The analysis concludes that matching Ethiopia's fertility decline would have a significantly more positive impact on poverty rates by 2030 and 2040 than a substantial increase in aid.

• Rapid population growth is identified as the primary reason sub-Saharan Africa has been unable to reduce poverty and improve livelihoods, despite receiving significant aid and experiencing recent strong growth.
• While aid has not consistently triggered macro-level poverty reduction, it has contributed to significant improvements in social indicators, such as reducing the gap in infant mortality between sub-Saharan Africa and the global average from 61 deaths in 1985 to 32 deaths by 2015.
• Aid provides a critical fiscal boost to low-income African countries; without it, government revenues in the 27 low-income countries in Africa would be 10% of GDP instead of 21%.
• Current research suggests aid has a modest positive effect on economic growth, with an average internal rate of return of approximately 10%.
• The aid landscape has become fragmented and incoherent due to the proliferation of new donors and diverse instruments, which increases the reporting burden on recipients and makes aid more fungible.
• There is a divergence in how different income groups benefit from external flows: low-income countries remain heavily aid-dependent, while middle-income countries increasingly benefit from foreign direct investment (FDI).
• The report identifies 16 highly aid-dependent countries in sub-Saharan Africa (where aid exceeds 10% of GNI), including Liberia (60%) and Somalia (22%).
• Comparing aid scenarios to 2030, the 'More Aid' scenario would result in 13 million fewer people living in extreme poverty compared to the 'Less Aid' scenario.
• A 'Reduced Fertility' scenario, matching Ethiopia's trajectory, is forecast to be more effective at reducing poverty than the 'More Aid' scenario, with 7 million fewer people in extreme poverty by 2030 and 22 million fewer by 2040.
• The 'demographic window' for economic growth—where 0-14 year-olds are less than 30% and those 65+ are less than 15% of the population—is largely closed in sub-Saharan Africa, where the median age is 19.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2017). Fertility, growth and the future of aid in sub-Saharan Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-6-2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Fertility, growth and the future of aid in sub-Saharan Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-6-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Fertility, growth and the future of aid in sub-Saharan Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-6-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2017fertility, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Fertility, growth and the future of aid in sub-Saharan Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/aitwr-6-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }