SEYCHELLES DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Seychelles, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social outcomes by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP per capita and overall economy size, alongside a reduction in extreme poverty, while highlighting the country's vulnerability to climate change and tourism-related shocks.

• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Seychelles' GDP per capita is projected to reach US$40,319 by 2043, representing a 21% increase (US$6,910) over the Current Path forecast. This would bring the GDP per capita to 67% of the average for high-income economies, up from 60% in 2019.
• The Free Trade and Manufacturing/Transfers scenarios are expected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, increasing it by US$1,612 and US$1,142 respectively above the Current Path forecast. Conversely, Health/WaSH and Demographics are expected to have the least impact because Seychelles already performs well in healthcare, WaSH infrastructure, and is experiencing a demographic dividend.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to reduce extreme poverty in Seychelles by 10 percentage points, moving from 50% to 40%, which corresponds to a decrease from 51,500 to 42,200 extremely poor people by 2043.
• Implementing all 11 scenarios would increase the total size of the Seychelles economy by 33% compared to the Current Path forecast, reaching US$3.1 billion by 2043 instead of US$2.3 billion. The service sector would see the largest increase at US$683 million (39%), while the ICT sector would grow by 4% and manufactures by 2%.
• Seychelles remains vulnerable to climate change and shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic due to its heavy reliance on fishing and tourism. Regarding emissions, carbon releases are projected to rise from 150,000 tons in 2019 to 241,000 tons in 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). SEYCHELLES DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. SEYCHELLES DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=SEYCHELLES DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026seychelles, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{SEYCHELLES DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=SC&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }