Comoros: Conclusion

This research paper concludes a study on the development futures of Comoros, comparing a 'Current Path' projection with a 'Combined scenario' of sectoral interventions. While macroeconomic indicators are improving, the document highlights systemic weaknesses in governance, infrastructure, and human capital that hinder sustainable growth. It provides a comprehensive set of policy recommendations across governance, finance, agriculture, and education to lift the country out of economic fragility.

• The 'Combined scenario' of sectoral interventions is projected to significantly outperform the 'Current Path' by 2043, increasing the GDP of Comoros to US$4,801 million compared to US$2,865 million, representing a 67.6% increase. Under this scenario, GDP per capita is expected to reach US$6,674, which is US$2,072 higher than the Current Path projection of US$4,602.
• The Combined scenario is projected to reduce the influence of the informal economy by 2043, lowering its share of GDP to 24.6% (valued at US$1.2 billion) from 29.2% (US$0.8 billion) on the Current Path. This shift would result in approximately 298,600 fewer informal laborers, reducing the proportion of informal labor from 52.1% to 39% of the total workforce.
• Extreme poverty is expected to decline significantly under the Combined scenario, with only 182,950 people (14.6% of the population) living in extreme poverty by 2043. This represents an improvement where nearly 185,409 more people are lifted out of poverty compared to the Current Path.
• Comoros suffers from systemic structural and socio-political weaknesses, including corruption, a poor business climate, and a human development index that is significantly lower than other lower-middle-income countries in Africa. Economic fragility is further exacerbated by insecurity, low agricultural productivity, climate change, and a lack of infrastructure and human capital.
• To improve governance and social inclusion, the document recommends a strategy focused on fighting corruption to improve the business climate, ensuring judicial transparency to protect property rights, accelerating decentralization to reduce local inequalities, and modernizing public administration through public-private partnerships.
• The report advises the Comorian government to diversify the economy away from agriculture by attracting manufacturing foreign direct investment (FDI), supporting agro-processing, and promoting the digital economy. It specifically suggests investing in productivity-enhancing technologies, such as drought-resistant seedlings and fertilizers, and supporting R&D for energy production and agricultural resilience.
• Human capital development requires expanding quality education and vocational training, particularly in rural areas. Health system improvements should focus on rural access, combating child malnutrition through sanitation and drinking water, and providing free access to vaccines for children under 5 and treatments for tropical diseases like malaria.
• To increase international financial resources, Comoros should leverage the AfCFTA to expand its market and create a more transparent business environment to attract FDI. Additionally, the government is encouraged to reform banking services and reduce remittance costs to encourage the diaspora to reinvest funds into national development projects, citing Rwanda's experience over the last 20 years as a potential model.

APA

Tsopmo, P. C., & Cilliers, J. (2026). Comoros: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KM&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

Tsopmo, Pierre Christian, and Jakkie Cilliers. Comoros: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KM&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tsopmo |first1=Pierre Christian |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Comoros: Conclusion |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KM&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tsopmo2026comoros, author = {Tsopmo, Pierre Christian and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Comoros: Conclusion}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=KM&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }