TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA

The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.

• African economies are categorized into three types based on their fossil fuel exposure: export-dominant economies (sensitive to price fluctuations and demand shifts), import-dependent economies (affected by trade deficits and inflation), and dual-role or mixed economies (facing both unstable revenues and high import costs).
• Fossil fuel dependence creates significant fiscal instability, where government revenues fluctuate with global prices, and 'presource' effects can lead to increased external debt even before production begins.
• Despite abundant resources, energy systems in Africa often prioritize external exports and urban demand, leaving approximately 600 million people without electricity and nearly one billion without clean cooking solutions.
• African countries face a high risk of stranded assets, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, as global climate commitments may reduce the value of these assets by more than half in some scenarios.
• Renewable energy is increasingly cost-competitive with fossil fuels and offers a more distributed employment model, though its success depends on domestic control of value chains to avoid repeating extractive patterns.
• Economic diversification should focus on moving up value chains through domestic processing of raw materials, expanding agro-processing to reduce food import dependence, and developing the digital economy to improve productivity.
• The transition to clean energy creates opportunities for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, manganese), but without strong governance, these sectors risk mirroring the 'raw material export' trap of fossil fuels.
• The report proposes a four-stage transition timeline: immediate term (2026–2027) for institutional alignment; short term (2027–2035) for scaling diversification; medium term (2035–2045) for aligning infrastructure; and long term (2045+) for full structural transformation.
• International cooperation is essential to address the 'African premium'—overstated sovereign risk perceptions that lead to significantly higher borrowing costs for African countries compared to other regions.
• Effective international support must go beyond funding to include technology transfer, debt restructuring linked to transition goals, and the preservation of domestic policy space.

APA

OMUKUTI, J. (2026). TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Report-Transitioning-from-fossil-fuels-in-Africa-FINAL.pdf

Chicago

OMUKUTI, JESSICA. TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, 2026. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Report-Transitioning-from-fossil-fuels-in-Africa-FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=OMUKUTI |first1=JESSICA |title=TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA |publisher=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |date=June 2026 |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Report-Transitioning-from-fossil-fuels-in-Africa-FINAL.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{omukuti2026transitioning, author = {OMUKUTI, JESSICA}, title = {{TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Report-Transitioning-from-fossil-fuels-in-Africa-FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }