Malawi: Conclusion

The report concludes that while Malawi's 'Combined scenario' shows economic growth and improved life expectancy by 2043, it will likely miss its MW2063 targets for urbanisation, health, and lower-middle-income status. Key challenges include climate vulnerability in rain-fed agriculture, infrastructure deficits, and governance issues. Recommended actions focus on industrial diversification, climate-smart agriculture, digitisation of tax systems, and expanded education and healthcare funding.

• Under the Combined scenario, Malawi's GDP per capita is projected to be 35% higher than the Current Path by 2043, driven by infrastructure investment, trade integration, and industrial expansion. Despite this, the growth is insufficient to reach lower-middle-income status by 2030, which would require an annual GDP growth rate exceeding 10%.
• Urbanisation and health outcomes are projected to fall short of the MW2063 initiative's targets. By 2043, only 25% of the population is expected to be urban, compared to the 60% goal for 2063. Life expectancy is projected to reach 71 years by 2043, which is below the targets of 76 years for 2042 and 78 years for 2050.
• Climate variability remains a significant threat to food security and rural livelihoods due to a reliance on rain-fed farming and recurring cyclones, floods, and droughts. The document recommends adopting climate-smart agriculture, expanding irrigation, and using nature-based solutions like catchment rehabilitation to prevent flood damage.
• The document identifies several systemic barriers to Malawi's progress, including bureaucratic inefficiencies, corruption risks, and infrastructure deficits in roads, electricity, and broadband. It suggests that digitisation, such as e-filing and e-invoicing, could improve domestic revenue mobilisation by expanding the tax base to the informal sector.

APA

van Rooyen, M. (2026). Malawi: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MW&topic=05-conclusion

Chicago

van Rooyen, Michelle. Malawi: Conclusion. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MW&topic=05-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Rooyen |first1=Michelle |title=Malawi: Conclusion |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MW&topic=05-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanrooyen2026malawi, author = {van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{Malawi: Conclusion}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MW&topic=05-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }