Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path

This report provides a 'Current Path' development forecast for Equatorial Guinea extending to 2043, based on the International Futures (IFs) platform. It details the country's trajectory across demographics, economics, poverty, and energy, highlighting a significant misalignment between high GDP per capita driven by oil wealth and poor human development indicators.

• Equatorial Guinea is experiencing rapid urbanisation; in 2019, 75.5% of the population was urban, and this is forecast to reach 88.7% (2.183 million people) by 2043, making it the second most urban country in Africa.
• The economy is heavily dependent on oil, making it vulnerable to commodity shocks. While the economy was US$16.8 billion in 2019 and is forecast to grow to US$53.8 billion by 2043, it is expected to only regain the size it had between 2012 and 2014 by the year 2029.
• There is a severe disparity between national wealth and individual wellbeing. Despite ranking 63rd globally in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2019, the country ranks 145th on the Human Development Index, with less than half the population having access to clean drinking water.
• Extreme poverty remains pervasive. In 2019, IFs estimated that 83.2% of the population lived below US$1.90 per day and 97.8% lived below US$5.50 per day. By 2043, these figures are forecast to be 73.3% and 95% respectively.
• Agricultural production is insufficient to meet domestic demand. In 2019, crop production was 0.82 million metric tons against a demand of 0.94 million metric tons; by 2043, the gap is forecast to widen to an excess demand of 1.1 million metric tons.
• The energy sector is transitioning from oil to gas. Oil production is forecast to drop from 66 million barrels in 2019 to 16 million barrels in 2043 as reserves deplete, while gas production is forecast to increase from 4 million barrels (oil equivalent) in 2019 to 23 million barrels in 2043, overtaking oil production in 2042.
• Equatorial Guinea currently absorbs more carbon than it releases due to its large forest areas, but it is forecast to become a small net contributor of carbon starting in 2027.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026equatorial, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }