Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path

The report forecasts Equatorial Guinea's development through 2043, highlighting a stark contrast between high GDP per capita driven by oil and extreme poverty. It predicts rapid urbanization, a shift from oil to gas production, and a widening gap in agricultural self-sufficiency.

• Equatorial Guinea is experiencing rapid urbanization; its urban population was 75.5% in 2019 and is forecast to reach 88.7% (2.183 million people) by 2043, making it the second most urban country in Africa.
• Despite being classified as an upper middle-income country with a GDP per capita that is forecast to increase from US$20,942 in 2019 to US$30,522 in 2043, wealth is distributed extremely unevenly. In 2019, 83.2% of the population lived below US$1.90 per day and 97.8% lived below US$5.50 per day.
• The economy is heavily dependent on oil, making it vulnerable to commodity shocks. While oil production is forecast to drop from 66 million barrels in 2019 to 16 million barrels in 2043 as reserves deplete, gas production is expected to increase from 4 million barrels (oil equivalent) in 2019 to 23 million barrels in 2043, overtaking oil production in 2042.
• Agricultural production is failing to meet domestic demand. In 2019, crop production was 0.82 million metric tons against a demand of 0.94 million metric tons; by 2043, this gap is forecast to widen to a deficit of 1.1 million metric tons (1.23 million produced vs 12.32 million demanded).
• Equatorial Guinea currently absorbs more carbon than it releases due to its large forest areas, but it is forecast to become a small net contributor of carbon to the atmosphere starting in 2027.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026equatorial, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Equatorial Guinea Development Futures: Current Path}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GQ&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }