REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This report analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for the Republic of the Congo, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic growth, poverty reduction, and economic diversification by 2043 compared to a 'Current Path' forecast.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase the Republic of the Congo's GDP per capita to US$12,917 by 2043, representing a 52.9% increase over the Current Path forecast and a 144.2% increase from 2019 levels.
• Among the 11 sectoral scenarios, the Free Trade scenario provides the highest benefit to GDP per capita (an increase of US$682 in 2043), followed by Manufacturing/Transfers (US$647) and Leapfrogging (US$519). The Agriculture scenario is noted as having the third lowest impact, indicating the sector is "underperforming despite its considerable potential".
• The scenario is expected to reduce the poverty rate by 16.5 percentage points to 27.3% by 2043, lifting an additional 1.7 million people out of poverty. This would narrow the gap between the Congo and other lower middle-income African countries from 16.1 percentage points in 2019 to 8.6 percentage points.
• The scenario promotes economic diversification away from oil extraction. By 2043, the manufacturing sector is projected to add US$9.3 billion and the service sector US$18.4 billion to the economy. The energy sector's contribution to GDP is expected to decline by 3.2 percentage points compared to the Current Path.
• Total GDP is projected to reach US$83 billion by 2043, a 65% increase over the Current Path. While carbon emissions will rise by 800,000 tons compared to the Current Path, this represents a 19.5% increase in emissions relative to a 65% increase in GDP.

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026republic, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }