REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The report forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase the Republic of the Congo's GDP per capita to US$12,917 by 2043, representing a 52.9% increase over the Current Path forecast. This integrated approach is expected to reduce the poverty rate by 16.5 percentage points, lifting 1.7 million additional people out of poverty. Economic diversification is a key outcome, with growth in manufacturing and services reducing the country's overdependence on oil extraction. While carbon emissions are projected to rise by 800,000 tons compared to the Current Path, this growth (19.5%) is disproportionately lower than the projected GDP increase (65%).

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to increase the Republic of the Congo's GDP per capita to US$12,917 by 2043, which is 52.9% higher than the Current Path forecast. From 2019 to 2043, GDP per capita is expected to increase by 144.2%.
• The scenario is expected to reduce the poverty rate by 16.5 percentage points compared to the Current Path, resulting in a rate of 27.3% and lifting an additional 1.7 million people out of poverty by 2043.
• The scenario promotes economic diversification away from oil extraction. By 2043, the manufacturing sector is projected to add US$9.3 billion and the service sector US$18.4 billion to the economy. The energy sector's contribution to GDP is expected to decline by 3.2 percentage points compared to the Current Path.
• Among the 11 sectoral scenarios, the Free Trade scenario provides the highest benefit to GDP per capita (an increase of US$682 by 2043), followed by Manufacturing/Transfers (US$647) and Leapfrogging (US$519). The Agriculture scenario has the third lowest impact, indicating sector underperformance.
• Economic growth under the scenario will lead to an increase in carbon emissions of 800,000 tons compared to the 2043 Current Path forecast. However, emissions growth (19.5%) is significantly lower than the projected GDP growth (65%).

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026republic, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CG&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }