Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares various development scenarios for Mozambique from 2020 to 2043. It evaluates the impact of sectoral interventions—such as agriculture, governance, and infrastructure—on GDP, poverty rates, and life expectancy, while highlighting a 'Combined scenario' that integrates these efforts to accelerate structural economic transformation.

• Among individual sectoral scenarios, the Large Infrastructure scenario is projected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, increasing it by US$256 over the Current Path. This is followed by the Agriculture scenario (US$228 increase) and the Governance scenario (US$131 increase), while Education and Demographics and Health have the weakest effects.
• All scenario interventions are expected to reduce poverty, with the Agriculture scenario achieving the lowest extreme poverty rate (at US$3 per day) by 2043 at 60.7%, compared to 65.1% under the Current Path. In the short to medium term, Agriculture, AfCFTA, Large Infrastructure, and Governance scenarios show the greatest potential to increase incomes for the poorest households.
• The 'Combined scenario,' which integrates all sectoral interventions, is projected to result in an average annual growth rate of approximately 8.5% between 2023 and 2043. By 2043, this would make Mozambique's economy US$40 billion larger than the Current Path, reaching a GDP of US$93.5 billion and becoming the 16th-largest economy in Africa.
• The Combined scenario would drive a structural transformation of the economy by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's share of GDP from 7.6% in 2023 to 14.7%, while the agriculture sector's share would decline from 25.9% to 9.4%. The energy sector is projected to become the dominant driver, rising from 24.9% of GDP in 2024 to 33.9% by 2043.
• The Combined scenario is expected to significantly reduce both informality and extreme poverty by 2043. The informal sector's share of GDP would drop to 22.6% (5.8 percentage points lower than the Current Path), and the poverty rate (at US$3 per day) would fall to 40%, meaning 15.4 million fewer people would live in extreme poverty compared to the Current Path.
• Life expectancy in Mozambique reached 65.3 years in 2024. By 2043, it is projected to reach 73 years on the Current Path, but could increase to 75.1 years under the Combined scenario.
• Accelerated economic activity under the Combined scenario is projected to increase carbon emissions from fossil fuels to approximately 47.6 million tons by 2043, compared to 33.3 million tons under the Current Path.
• Energy production in Mozambique is heavily dominated by gas. By 2043, gas production is projected to represent 88.5% of total energy production on the Current Path and approximately 91% in the Combined scenario.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Chipanda, B. (2026). Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Blessing Chipanda. Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026mozambique, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }