Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS

The document evaluates the impact of different policy interventions on Mozambique's future. It finds that while individual sectoral scenarios like Large Infrastructure and Agriculture boost GDP per capita, a 'Combined scenario' integrating multiple sectors offers the most significant gains, potentially reducing extreme poverty from 65.1% to 40% by 2043. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 47.6 million tons by 2043. The energy sector, dominated by gas, is expected to become the primary economic driver under the Combined scenario.

• Among individual sectoral scenarios, Large Infrastructure provides the highest boost to GDP per capita by 2043, increasing it by US$256 over the Current Path, followed by Agriculture (US$228) and Governance (US$131).
• The Combined scenario, which integrates all sectoral interventions, is projected to result in an average annual growth rate of approximately 8.5% between 2023 and 2043, making Mozambique the 16th-largest economy in Africa by 2043 with a GDP of US$93.5 billion.
• The Combined scenario significantly reduces extreme poverty (measured at US$3 per day) to 40% by 2043, compared to 65.1% on the Current Path, representing 15.4 million fewer people in extreme poverty.
• Economic structural transformation under the Combined scenario would see the energy sector become the dominant driver of the economy, with its GDP share rising from 24.9% in 2024 to 33.9% by 2043, while the manufacturing sector's share increases from 7.6% in 2023 to 14.7% in 2043.
• The Combined scenario is expected to reduce the size of the informal sector to 22.6% of GDP by 2043, which is 5.8 percentage points lower than the Current Path projection of 28.4%.
• Life expectancy in Mozambique is projected to reach 73 years by 2043 on the Current Path, and 75.1 years under the Combined scenario.
• Accelerated economic activity under the Combined scenario is projected to increase carbon emissions from fossil fuels to approximately 47.6 million tons by 2043, compared to 33.3 million tons on the Current Path.
• Energy production in Mozambique is heavily reliant on gas, which is projected to constitute 88.5% of total energy production by 2043 on the Current Path and 91% in the Combined scenario.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Chipanda, B. (2026). Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Blessing Chipanda. Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Chipanda |first2=Blessing |title=Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026mozambique, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Chipanda, Blessing}, title = {{Mozambique: SCENARIO COMPARISONS}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MZ&topic=04-scenario-comparisons}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }