Burning bridges

The report finds that Equinor's historical and planned production significantly exceed science-based carbon budgets. Since 1972, Equinor's assets have caused 8.66 GtCO2 in emissions, with the majority originating from Norway. The analysis argues that Equinor's current global portfolio and future expansion plans are incompatible with a 1.5°C pathway, overshooting the IEA NZE benchmark by 0.93 GtCO2 between 2024 and 2050. It further critiques Equinor's 'Bridges' scenario for relying on outdated carbon budget data and unproven carbon removal technologies.

• Since its founding as Statoil in 1972, the combustion of oil and gas from Equinor's share of assets has produced an estimated 8.66 billion tonnes (Gt) of CO2 emissions, which is more than one-fifth of total anthropogenic emissions in 2025.
• The majority of Equinor's historical emissions come from Norwegian fields, totaling approximately 7.19 GtCO2 between 1972 and 2025. This volume is more than three times Norway's domestic emissions (2.08 GtCO2) and over five times Norway's per-capita share of past global CO2 emissions (1.31 GtCO2) for the same period.
• Equinor continued to approve new oil and gas projects following the Paris Agreement; between 2016 and 2025, 64 assets were approved for development, involving an investment of EUR 28.54 billion.
• Equinor's total global asset portfolio contains 14.31 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in economically recoverable resources. If fully produced and burned, these would release 5.17 GtCO2, representing nearly 4% of the remaining global carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
• A significant portion of Equinor's future emissions are not yet locked in, with 6.33 billion boe held in undeveloped assets. Rystad modelling indicates that 97% of these undeveloped global assets are not expected to start production until 2029 or later, by which time the 1.5°C carbon budget is projected to be exhausted.
• Equinor's 'Bridges' scenario, claimed to be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, is deemed unreliable because it uses outdated carbon budget figures from the start of 2020 and assumes exceptionally high levels of carbon dioxide removal (4.3 GtCO2 per year by 2050), which is more than double the IEA's NZE scenario.
• Equinor's current production plans overshoot the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 scenario. Projected emissions from Equinor's assets are 5.0 GtCO2 between 2024 and 2050, whereas an NZE-aligned decline would result in 4.07 GtCO2, creating an overshoot of 0.93 GtCO2.
• Halting new developments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) alone is insufficient for NZE alignment, as emissions would still reach 4.41 GtCO2 (overshooting the benchmark by 0.33 GtCO2). Alignment is only achieved if all new oil and gas development is halted globally.

APA

Global Witness (2026). Burning bridges. https://globalwitness.org/documents/1032/Burning_Bridges_-_Jul_2026_c7BJHNB.pdf

Chicago

Global Witness. Burning bridges. 2026. https://globalwitness.org/documents/1032/Burning_Bridges_-_Jul_2026_c7BJHNB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Witness |title=Burning bridges |date=July 2026 |url=https://globalwitness.org/documents/1032/Burning_Bridges_-_Jul_2026_c7BJHNB.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalwitness2026burning, author = {{Global Witness}}, title = {{Burning bridges}}, institution = {Global Witness}, year = {2026}, month = jul, url = {https://globalwitness.org/documents/1032/Burning_Bridges_-_Jul_2026_c7BJHNB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }